Daejeon Citizen 0-1 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 37% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Daejeon Citizen face Gangwon FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Daejeon World Cup Stadium plays host to Daejeon Citizen versus Gangwon FC in K League 1 (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 05:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Daejeon Citizen have collected 1.40 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: W D W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Daejeon Citizen have gone 4W 4D 2L in their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gangwon FC (all games): 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 — 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Gangwon FC's away record over their last 10 away games: 1W 4D 5L (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Daejeon Citizen, 1.00 for Gangwon FC — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Daejeon Citizen — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 89% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 12 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 36%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (last 37 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 62%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (away games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Daejeon Citizen 65% versus Gangwon FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Daejeon Citizen 57% | Gangwon FC 24%). Note also that Gangwon FC surrender HT leads in 62% of cases while Daejeon Citizen recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 36% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daejeon Citizen 1.14 xG and Gangwon FC 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.031 / defence 1.131 | Gangwon FC attack 0.833 / defence 0.895. League average goals — home 1.233 / away 1.130. Data: built from Daejeon Citizen's last 33 games and Gangwon FC's last 66.
Result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 37% | Draw 30% | Gangwon FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Daejeon Citizen 2.72 | Draw 3.30 | Gangwon FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Daejeon Citizen 70% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Daejeon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 11 November 2023 at 05:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daejeon Citizen 37% | Draw 30% | Gangwon FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% (Under 62%) | BTTS Yes 45% (No 55%) | xG Daejeon Citizen 1.14 / Gangwon FC 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Daejeon Citizen attack 1.031 / def 1.131 | Gangwon FC attack 0.833 / def 0.895 | league avg home 1.233 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Daejeon Citizen xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Gangwon FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 05:00 UK time on Saturday 11 November 2023 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Daejeon Citizen 0 - 1 Gangwon FC.
Where is Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Daejeon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC part of?
Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Daejeon Citizen a 37% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (55%).
Will Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (62%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Daejeon Citizen's attack rating (1.03) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 1.14 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.83x) against Daejeon Citizen's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from Daejeon Citizen's last 33 games and Gangwon FC's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 1-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
37%
2.72
30%
3.30
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.6%
Home win
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Daejeon Citizen xG
Total xG
2.20
1.06
Gangwon FC xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
35%
2.90
32%
3.12
Win to Nil
13%
7.90
11%
9.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 11.8 | 6.3 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.6 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 7.6 | 4.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Daejeon Citizen and 1.06 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Daejeon Citizen's recent record stands at 13W 14D 10L from 37 games, a 1.43 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-D in the last five.
Gangwon FC, meanwhile, have gone 4W 15D 18L across 37 games — 0.73 PPG, with D-D-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Daejeon Citizen by 0.70 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gangwon FC heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Daejeon Citizen have managed 9W 5D 4L from their last 18 home games — 1.78 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gangwon FC's away record stands at 2W 7D 9L across their last 18 away games, a 0.72 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Daejeon Citizen come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Daejeon Citizen are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 1.51 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 0.76 scored and 1.19 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Daejeon Citizen have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games.
Last 37 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Daejeon Citizen (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Daejeon Citizen
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Daejeon Citizen have gone 13W 14D 10L in their last 37 games (1.43 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 4W 15D 18L in their last 37 (0.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Daejeon Citizen at home or Gangwon FC away?
Daejeon Citizen's home record (1.78 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Daejeon Citizen at home: 1.78 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 0.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC, the earliest from March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 23 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Daejeon Citizen won Daejeon Citizen 3-0 Gangwon FC on 23 Aug 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daejeon Citizen have gone 2W 3D 1L from the 6 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Daejeon Citizen
6
Draws
2
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Daejeon Citizen have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 23 August 2026: Daejeon Citizen 3-0 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Daejeon Citizen 61%, Gangwon FC 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Daejeon Citizen) and 17% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 56%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daejeon Citizen home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Daejeon Citizen vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 39% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Daejeon Citizen's recent games and 17% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Daejeon Citizen and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 89% of Daejeon Citizen's recent matches and 56% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Daejeon Citizen 0-1 at Daejeon World Cup Stadium, Relegation Round - 3, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daejeon Citizen 1.14 xG and Gangwon FC 1.06 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Daejeon Citizen fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daejeon Citizen attack 1.03 / defence 1.13 against Gangwon FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daejeon Citizen 37% | Draw 30% | Gangwon FC 33%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Daejeon Citizen 57%, Gangwon FC 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did not.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Daejeon Citizen arrived the stronger side — 1.43 PPG against 0.73. Form was overturned, with Gangwon FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.