Jeju United FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeju United FC at 40%, yet in-form Gangwon FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Jeju United FC welcome Gangwon FC to Jeju World Cup Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 16). Kick-off is Sunday 2 June 2024 at 09:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Jeju United FC have gone 1W 4D 5L — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W D D L D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Jeju United FC at home: 2W 4D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Gangwon FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across their last 10 road games (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Gangwon FC are 0.70 PPG ahead (1.40 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Jeju United FC, 0 for Gangwon FC and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Mar 2024, ended Jeju United FC 1–1 Gangwon FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Jeju United FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 55% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; of the 19 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 42%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 57% versus Gangwon FC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 54% | Gangwon FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.37 xG and Gangwon FC 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.843 / defence 0.973 | Gangwon FC attack 1.100 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.417 / away 1.163. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 48 games and Gangwon FC's last 48.
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 40% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.51 | Draw 3.81 | Gangwon FC 2.95. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeju United FC are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gangwon FC (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.62 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 51% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Jeju United FC's last 10 home games and Gangwon FC's last 10 away games) averaging 1.6 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 16 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 2 June 2024 at 09:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 40% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% (Under 51%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Jeju United FC 1.37 / Gangwon FC 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.843 / def 0.973 | Gangwon FC attack 1.100 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.417 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: Jeju United FC (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Gangwon FC xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 09:30 UK time on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Jeju United FC 1 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 16) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 40% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Jeju United FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (51%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeju United FC's attack rating (0.84) and Gangwon FC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.37 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Jeju United FC's last 48 games and Gangwon FC's last 48 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeju United FC Win
40%
2.51
26%
3.81
34%
2.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.62
1.24
Gangwon FC xG
2.51
40%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.95
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.47
25%
3.94
Win to Nil
11%
8.70
9%
11.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 12.5 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.24 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC come into this having played 76 games, going 24W 21D 31L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, Gangwon FC sit at 1.09 PPG from 76 outings (20W 23D 33L), a run that reads W-W-D-D-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.22 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.09. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeju United FC's home form reads 10W 14D 14L across their last 38 home games, a 1.16 PPG return.
Away from home, Gangwon FC have taken 1.00 points per game from their last 38 away games (9W 11D 18L).
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.05 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Jeju United FC (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Jeju United FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 24W 21D 31L in their last 76 games (1.22 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 20W 23D 33L in their last 76 (1.09 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Jeju United FC's home record (1.16 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.16 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Jul 2024, when Gangwon FC won Gangwon FC 4-0 Jeju United FC.
Jeju United FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Jeju United FC
6
Draws
3
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Jeju United FC have won 1, Gangwon FC have won 3, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Gangwon FC 0-1 Jeju United FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 27% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 55%, Gangwon FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Jeju United FC) and 37% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 32% of games; Gangwon FC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Jeju United FC vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 45% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 37% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Jeju United FC's recent matches and 55% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.37 xG and Gangwon FC 1.24 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.84 / defence 0.97 against Gangwon FC attack 1.10 / defence 1.15, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 40% | Draw 26% | Gangwon FC 34%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 54%, Gangwon FC 38%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.22 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.09 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.