Suwon City FC 1-2 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 35%, yet in-form Gangwon FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Gangwon FC make the trip to Suwon Sports Complex to face Suwon City FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. The match kicks off on Saturday 28 June 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form
Suwon City FC (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L at Suwon Sports Complex — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Gangwon FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gangwon FC's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Gangwon FC are 0.80 PPG clear of Suwon City FC in recent K League 1 fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Suwon City FC lead 2W to 3W over the last 8 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 May 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Gangwon FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (78 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 59% versus Gangwon FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 56% | Gangwon FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.15 xG and Gangwon FC 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.071 / defence 0.999 | Gangwon FC attack 0.938 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.162 / away 1.186. Data: 52 Suwon City FC games / 53 Gangwon FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 35% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.86 | Draw 3.23 | Gangwon FC 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Suwon City FC are the pick at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gangwon FC (1.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 50% | Gangwon FC 50%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Jun 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 35% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 47% | xG Suwon City FC 1.15 / Gangwon FC 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.071 / def 0.999 | Gangwon FC attack 0.938 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.162 / away 1.186 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.11
Gangwon FC xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 June 2025 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 Gangwon FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 35% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 34% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Record (8 meetings): Suwon City FC 2W | Draws 3 | Gangwon FC 3W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. Gangwon FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Suwon City FC's attack at 1.07x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Gangwon FC's attack (0.94x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.11.
These ratings are built from 52/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
35%
2.83
31%
3.22
34%
2.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.26
1.11
Gangwon FC xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.22
31%
Draw
2.98
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
32%
3.15
Win to Nil
12%
8.60
11%
9.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 6.5 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.3 | 7.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 7.6 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.9 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.11 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 78 outings, Suwon City FC have picked up 1.14 PPG on a 24W 17D 37L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 26W 24D 28L from 78 games, 1.31 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.14 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.31 for Gangwon FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Suwon City FC have posted 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (13W 8D 17L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 10W 11D 17L from 38 away games — 1.08 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 78 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 24W 17D 37L in their last 78 games (1.14 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 26W 24D 28L in their last 78 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.24 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.24 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 21 September 2025, roughly 11 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 4-0 on 9 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gangwon FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon City FC
3
Draws
4
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 3, Gangwon FC have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
They last met on 21 September 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-0 Gangwon FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 60%, Gangwon FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Suwon City FC) and 37% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Gangwon FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Suwon City FC's recent matches and 47% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon City FC vs Gangwon FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 37% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Gangwon FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Gangwon FC in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gangwon FC defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.15 xG and Gangwon FC 1.11 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Gangwon FC outscored their 1.11 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.07 / defence 1.00 against Gangwon FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 35% | Draw 31% | Gangwon FC 34%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Gangwon FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Gangwon FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (78 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.14 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.31 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.