Pohang Steelers 1-1 Suwon City FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Pohang Steelers at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Pohang Steelers face Suwon City FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Steelyard plays host to Pohang Steelers versus Suwon City FC in K League 1 (Championship Round - 1). Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Pohang Steelers have collected 1.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
At home, Pohang Steelers have gone 4W 3D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Pohang Steelers are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Suwon City FC (all games): 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.90. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Suwon City FC have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (from Pohang Steelers's last 10 home games and Suwon City FC's last 10 away games) — Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Suwon City FC in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated the 6 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Pohang Steelers, 1 for Suwon City FC and 2 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Pohang Steelers 1–1 Suwon City FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Data
Pohang Steelers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 46%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Suwon City FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 71 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 92% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 34 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Pohang Steelers 65% and Suwon City FC 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 45% | Suwon City FC 58%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Pohang Steelers surrender their half-time lead 33% of the time, while Suwon City FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle. Note also that Suwon City FC surrender HT leads in 33% of cases while Pohang Steelers recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 46% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.27 xG and Suwon City FC 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 0.924 / defence 0.893 | Suwon City FC attack 1.080 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Data: built from Pohang Steelers's last 66 games and Suwon City FC's last 66.
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 38% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 34%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 2.60 | Draw 3.68 | Suwon City FC 2.91. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Pohang Steelers at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Pohang Steelers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Pohang Steelers 80% (last 10 home games) | Suwon City FC 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC | Competition: K League 1, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Steelyard • Kick-off: Friday 18 October 2024 at 12:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 38% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Pohang Steelers 1.27 / Suwon City FC 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 0.924 / def 0.893 | Suwon City FC attack 1.080 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.459 / away 1.234 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Suwon City FC xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC FAQs
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC kicked off at 12:30 UK time on Friday 18 October 2024 at Steelyard.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 1 Suwon City FC.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC is a K League 1 fixture (Championship Round - 1) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 38% chance of winning, Suwon City FC a 34% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Pohang Steelers's attack at 0.92x the league average against Suwon City FC's defence at 0.94x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon City FC's attack (1.08x) against Pohang Steelers's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from Pohang Steelers's last 66 games and Suwon City FC's last 66 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 1-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
38%
2.60
27%
3.68
34%
2.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.8%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.46
1.19
Suwon City FC xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.91
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
30%
3.28
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.54
10%
10.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 10.1 | 6.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.8 | 12.9 | 7.7 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.2 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 1.19 for Suwon City FC, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Pohang Steelers come into this having played 71 games, going 30W 25D 16L for 1.62 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-D.
On the other side, Suwon City FC sit at 1.18 PPG from 71 outings (23W 15D 33L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-D across their last five.
Pohang Steelers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.44 PPG clear of Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Pohang Steelers's home form reads 19W 12D 5L across their last 36 home games, a 1.92 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon City FC have taken 1.11 points per game from their last 36 away games (11W 7D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Pohang Steelers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Suwon City FC are on 1.35 scored and 1.80 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Pohang Steelers have seen both teams score in 65% of their recent games; Suwon City FC in 61%.
Last 71 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Pohang Steelers (Home) vs Suwon City FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Pohang Steelers
Current Season
Suwon City FC
Current Season
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Form FAQs
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 30W 25D 16L in their last 71 games (1.62 PPG), while Suwon City FC have gone 23W 15D 33L in their last 71 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Suwon City FC away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.92 PPG; Suwon City FC away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 10 H2H matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC, the earliest from March 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent in our data was on 22 July 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC on 22 Jul 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Pohang Steelers have gone 3W 3D 1L from the 7 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Suwon City FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon City FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Pohang Steelers have won 4, Suwon City FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 July 2025: Pohang Steelers 1-5 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 31% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 61%, Suwon City FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Pohang Steelers) and 58% (Suwon City FC).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Suwon City FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon City FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Pohang Steelers vs Suwon City FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Pohang Steelers's games and 58% of Suwon City FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 58% of Suwon City FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 92% of Suwon City FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers and Suwon City FC finished level at 1-1 at Steelyard, Championship Round - 1, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.27 xG and Suwon City FC 1.19 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.92 / defence 0.89 against Suwon City FC attack 1.08 / defence 0.94, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 38% | Draw 27% | Suwon City FC 34%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 45%, Suwon City FC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (71 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Suwon City FC's trading profile (71 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Pohang Steelers arrived the stronger side — 1.62 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.