Suwon City FC 4-3 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Suwon City FC at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon City FC host Daegu FC at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 March 2022 at 05:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon City FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Suwon City FC's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across 10 games at Suwon Sports Complex this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Suwon City FC are significantly better at Suwon Sports Complex than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Daegu FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daegu FC have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Suwon City FC at 1.00 PPG versus Daegu FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Suwon City FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games).
Daegu FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon City FC 60% versus Daegu FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 60% | Daegu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 1.029 / defence 1.071 | Daegu FC attack 0.864 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 0.995. Data: 38 Suwon City FC games / 38 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 2.27 | Draw 3.45 | Daegu FC 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Suwon City FC at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.18 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates are neutral: Suwon City FC 50% | Daegu FC 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Mar 2022, 05:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 43% | xG Suwon City FC 1.26 / Daegu FC 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 1.029 / def 1.071 | Daegu FC attack 0.864 / def 1.139 | league avg home 1.074 / away 0.995 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Daegu FC xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC kicked off at 05:00 on Sunday 20 March 2022 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Suwon City FC 4 - 3 Daegu FC.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 44% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 27% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-W-L-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (1.03) and Daegu FC's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.26 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Suwon City FC's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.0%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
44%
2.26
29%
3.48
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.18
0.92
Daegu FC xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
18%
5.69
8%
13.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 10.4 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.1 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 0.92 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Suwon City FC's recent record stands at 14W 9D 15L from 38 games, a 1.34 PPG return, with L-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 13L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Suwon City FC on 1.34 PPG, Daegu FC on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Suwon City FC have managed 9W 3D 7L from 19 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 7W 4D 8L across 19 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.39 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.08 scored and 1.26 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 14W 9D 15L in their last 38 games (1.34 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daegu FC away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.58 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.32 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Suwon City FC's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Suwon City FC
5
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 2, Daegu FC have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Suwon City FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daegu FC?
Daegu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon City FC 63%, Daegu FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Suwon City FC) and 47% (Daegu FC). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Daegu FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 63% of Suwon City FC's games and 53% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Suwon City FC's matches and 47% of Daegu FC's.
Do Suwon City FC and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Suwon City FC edge out Daegu FC 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon City FC beat Daegu FC 4-3 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.26 xG and Daegu FC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Suwon City FC beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Daegu FC outscored their 0.92 projection by 2.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.03 / defence 1.07 against Daegu FC attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 44% | Draw 29% | Daegu FC 27%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 60%, Daegu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Daegu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.34 PPG, Daegu FC 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon City FC win broke the near-deadlock. Suwon City FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.47 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daegu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.05 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.32 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.