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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Suwon City FC and Daegu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Suwon Sports Complex, Relegation Group - 35, as Suwon City FC and Daegu FC drew 1-1 in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 2.12 xG and Daegu FC 1.61 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Suwon City FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 1.08 / defence 1.16 against Daegu FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.30, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 49% | Draw 22% | Daegu FC 29%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and landed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Daegu FC 61%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Suwon City FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Daegu FC's trading profile (72 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.26 PPG, Daegu FC 0.99 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Daegu FC (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights