FC Seoul 2-2 Seongnam FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as FC Seoul take on Seongnam FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC Seoul host Seongnam FC at Seoul World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 30 April 2021 at 11:30 UTC.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, FC Seoul have won 0, Seongnam FC 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 10 Mar 2021, ended 0–1 with Seongnam FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC Seoul 0.74 xG and Seongnam FC 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Seoul attack 0.902 / defence 1.212 | Seongnam FC attack 0.623 / defence 0.919. League average goals — home 0.895 / away 0.946. Data: 12 FC Seoul games / 12 Seongnam FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC Seoul 32% | Draw 38% | Seongnam FC 30%. Fair-value odds: FC Seoul 3.12 | Draw 2.63 | Seongnam FC 3.33. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 18% | BTTS probability 27% | Total xG 1.46. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 82% probability — total xG of 1.46 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 73% — Seongnam FC's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 27%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 30% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 18% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Seoul World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 30 Apr 2021, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC Seoul 32% | Draw 38% | Seongnam FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 18% | BTTS 27% | xG FC Seoul 0.74 / Seongnam FC 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: FC Seoul attack 0.902 / def 1.212 | Seongnam FC attack 0.623 / def 0.919 | league avg home 0.895 / away 0.946 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
FC Seoul xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Seongnam FC xG
27%
BTTS
43%
Over 1.5
18%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kick off?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 30 April 2021 at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
FC Seoul 2 - 2 Seongnam FC.
Where is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC being played?
The match is being played at Seoul World Cup Stadium.
What competition is FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC part of?
FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our statistical model gives FC Seoul a 32% chance of winning, Seongnam FC a 30% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our model estimates a 27% probability that both FC Seoul and Seongnam FC will score (BTTS).
Will FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 18%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Record (1 meetings): FC Seoul 0W | Draws 0 | Seongnam FC 1W.
What form are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC Seoul's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against Seongnam FC's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.74. The same calculation in reverse, Seongnam FC's attack versus FC Seoul's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 24.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.7%), 0-1 (15.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.16
38%
2.61
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
23.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.3%
Home win
0 – 1
16.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
FC Seoul xG
Total xG
1.46
0.71
Seongnam FC xG
3.16
32%
Home win
2.61
38%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
43%
Over 1.5
2.33
57%
Under 1.5
1.75
18%
Over 2.5
5.56
82%
Under 2.5
1.22
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
27%
BTTS Yes
3.67
73%
BTTS No
1.37
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
48%
2.10
Win to Nil
15%
6.46
14%
7.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 23.3 | 16.7 | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 17.3 | 12.4 | 4.4 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.9%.
How many goals are FC Seoul and Seongnam FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for FC Seoul and 0.71 for Seongnam FC, a combined total of 1.46.
How confident is the prediction model for FC Seoul vs Seongnam FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
Seongnam FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 16 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Nov 2021, when FC Seoul won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC Seoul's record when hosting Seongnam FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
FC Seoul
3
Draws
3
Seongnam FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
From 8 meetings on record, FC Seoul have won 2, Seongnam FC have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did FC Seoul and Seongnam FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2022, when FC Seoul 0-1 Seongnam FC.
Who has won more matches between FC Seoul and Seongnam FC?
Seongnam FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC Seoul home games / Seongnam FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
FC Seoul and Seongnam FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul and Seongnam FC finished level at 2-2 at Seoul World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC Seoul 0.74 xG and Seongnam FC 0.71 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC Seoul beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Seongnam FC outscored their 0.71 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC Seoul attack 0.90 / defence 1.21 against Seongnam FC attack 0.62 / defence 0.92, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC Seoul 32% | Draw 38% | Seongnam FC 30%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. Over 3.5 was 6% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.