Suwon Bluewings 0-3 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Jeonbuk Motors (47%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon Bluewings face Jeonbuk Motors.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Suwon Bluewings host Jeonbuk Motors at Suwon World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 10 May 2023 at 11:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Suwon Bluewings — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Suwon Bluewings's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Suwon World Cup Stadium this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have recorded 7W 2D 1L from 10 outings — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Jeonbuk Motors away from home this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Jeonbuk Motors — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (2.30 vs 1.50). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Suwon Bluewings register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
Jeonbuk Motors have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 8 encounters against Suwon Bluewings's 1 victories.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 5 Mar 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Jeonbuk Motors have won 6 of 8 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Suwon Bluewings in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Suwon Bluewings 49% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon Bluewings 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.92 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.854 / defence 1.272 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.881 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.215. Data: 44 Suwon Bluewings games / 44 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 25% | Draw 28% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 4.00 | Draw 3.57 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.13. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.29. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.29 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.29 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. This conflicts with form data: Suwon Bluewings 60% | Jeonbuk Motors 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 10 May 2023, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 25% | Draw 28% | Jeonbuk Motors 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.92 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.854 / def 1.272 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.881 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.215 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Jeonbuk Motors xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:30 on Wednesday 10 May 2023 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Suwon Bluewings 0 - 3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 25% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
Record (8 meetings): Suwon Bluewings 1W | Draws 1 | Jeonbuk Motors 6W.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Suwon Bluewings's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.92. The same calculation in reverse, Jeonbuk Motors's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.2%), 0-0 (11.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
25%
3.93
28%
3.62
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
2.29
1.36
Jeonbuk Motors xG
3.93
25%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
26%
3.90
40%
2.52
Win to Nil
7%
15.35
19%
5.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 13.9 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.4 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 4.0 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 1.36 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.29.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Suwon Bluewings come into this having played 76 games, going 22W 22D 32L for 1.16 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W.
On the other side, Jeonbuk Motors sit at 1.96 PPG from 76 outings (43W 20D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five.
Jeonbuk Motors carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.80 PPG clear of Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Suwon Bluewings's home form reads 10W 13D 15L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.13 PPG return.
Away from home, Jeonbuk Motors have taken 1.97 points per game from 38 outings (22W 9D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Suwon Bluewings are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.67 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Suwon Bluewings have gone 22W 22D 32L in their last 76 games (1.16 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon Bluewings at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon Bluewings at home: 1.13 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 1.97 PPG.
Have Suwon Bluewings or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Suwon Bluewings have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 12 August 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Oct 2021, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting Jeonbuk Motors specifically: 0W 0D 5L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Suwon Bluewings
2
Draws
7
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 1, Jeonbuk Motors have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 12 August 2023, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and Jeonbuk Motors?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Suwon Bluewings 55%, Jeonbuk Motors 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Suwon Bluewings) and 50% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 40%; Suwon Bluewings have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon Bluewings play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Suwon Bluewings's recent matches and 53% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Suwon Bluewings vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Suwon Bluewings's recent games and 50% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Jeonbuk Motors run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Suwon Bluewings.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Suwon Bluewings 0-3 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.92 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.36 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Suwon Bluewings fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Jeonbuk Motors outscored their 1.36 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.85 / defence 1.27 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 0.88 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 25% | Draw 28% | Jeonbuk Motors 47%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon Bluewings 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.16. Form held, and they took the win. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.18 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.