Incheon United 0-1 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Incheon United at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Sungui Arena Park plays host to Incheon United versus Suwon Bluewings in K League 1, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023 at 08:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Incheon United have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Incheon United's home record at Sungui Arena Park: 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Incheon United are significantly better at Sungui Arena Park than their overall form suggests.
Suwon Bluewings (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W W D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Suwon Bluewings have posted 5W 1D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Suwon Bluewings are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 6 meetings: Incheon United 2W, Suwon Bluewings 1W, 3D.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Sep 2022, ended 3–3 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Incheon United half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Suwon Bluewings half-time and goal-timing data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 49% versus Suwon Bluewings 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 40% | Suwon Bluewings 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.38 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.940 / defence 0.942 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.818 / defence 1.157. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.286. Data: 43 Incheon United games / 43 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 46% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 27%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Suwon Bluewings 3.70. Incheon United hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Incheon United at 46% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Suwon Bluewings (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Incheon United if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 42% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 47% on No. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 50% | Suwon Bluewings 60%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 May 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 46% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Incheon United 1.38 / Suwon Bluewings 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.940 / def 0.942 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.818 / def 1.157 | league avg home 1.265 / away 1.286 • Poisson stance: Incheon United (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Suwon Bluewings xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 08:30 on Friday 5 May 2023 at Sungui Arena Park.
What was the final score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United 0 - 1 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 46% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Incheon United the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (6 meetings): Incheon United 2W | Draws 3 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings in?
Incheon United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.94x the league average against Suwon Bluewings's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Suwon Bluewings's attack (0.82x) against Incheon United's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.99.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Incheon United Win
46%
2.19
27%
3.67
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.37
0.99
Suwon Bluewings xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
25%
3.96
Win to Nil
17%
5.90
7%
14.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 9.3 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.8 | 6.3 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 8.8 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.0 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Incheon United and 0.99 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Incheon United come into this having played 76 games, going 25W 26D 25L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-W-D-L.
On the other side, Suwon Bluewings sit at 1.16 PPG from 76 outings (22W 22D 32L), a run that reads L-W-W-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.33 PPG for Incheon United against 1.16 for Suwon Bluewings. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Incheon United's home form reads 14W 13D 11L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.45 PPG return.
Away from home, Suwon Bluewings have taken 1.18 points per game from 38 outings (12W 9D 17L).
Attack vs Defence
Incheon United are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 1.13 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Current Season
Suwon Bluewings
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 22W 22D 32L in their last 76 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Incheon United's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.45 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.18 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 9 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 30 September 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Incheon United have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Suwon Bluewings — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Incheon United
4
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
From 9 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 30 September 2023, when Incheon United 2-0 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Suwon Bluewings?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Incheon United see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 40%, Suwon Bluewings 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Incheon United) and 47% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Incheon United keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Incheon United have failed to score in 40% of games; Suwon Bluewings in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Incheon United's recent matches and 42% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Incheon United's recent games and 47% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Suwon Bluewings defy the odds to beat Incheon United 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Suwon Bluewings beat Incheon United 0-1 at Sungui Arena Park, Regular Season - 11, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Incheon United 1.38 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.99 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Incheon United fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Incheon United attack 0.94 / defence 0.94 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.82 / defence 1.16, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Incheon United 46% | Draw 27% | Suwon Bluewings 27%, with Incheon United to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Suwon Bluewings win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Incheon United 40%, Suwon Bluewings 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Incheon United's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Incheon United 1.33 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.16 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Suwon Bluewings win broke the near-deadlock. Incheon United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.