Suwon Bluewings 1-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 43% as Suwon Bluewings take on FC Seoul.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 6 sees FC Seoul travel to Suwon World Cup Stadium to take on Suwon Bluewings. The game is scheduled for Sunday 21 March 2021, 07:30 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon Bluewings 0.89 xG and FC Seoul 0.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.879 / defence 0.922 | FC Seoul attack 0.657 / defence 1.051. League average goals — home 0.966 / away 0.982. Data: 5 Suwon Bluewings games / 5 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 43% | FC Seoul 20%. Fair-value odds: Suwon Bluewings 2.70 | Draw 2.33 | FC Seoul 5.00. The draw (43%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.49. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.49 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — FC Seoul's lower xG of 0.59 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Our Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 43% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 20% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.49 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 19% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Suwon World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2021, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 43% | FC Seoul 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 30% | xG Suwon Bluewings 0.89 / FC Seoul 0.59 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon Bluewings attack 0.879 / def 0.922 | FC Seoul attack 0.657 / def 1.051 | league avg home 0.966 / away 0.982 • Poisson stance: Draw (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Suwon Bluewings xG
Expected Goals
0.59
FC Seoul xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kick off?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul kicked off at 07:30 on Sunday 21 March 2021 at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Suwon Bluewings 1 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Suwon World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul part of?
Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Suwon Bluewings a 37% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 20% chance, and a 43% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Suwon Bluewings's attack rating (0.88) and FC Seoul's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 0.89 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Suwon Bluewings's defence, projects 0.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 24.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (18.6%), 1-1 (13.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
37%
2.70
43%
2.30
20%
5.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
20.2%
Home win
0 – 1
13.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Suwon Bluewings xG
Total xG
1.49
0.59
FC Seoul xG
2.70
37%
Home win
2.30
43%
Draw
5.12
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
55%
1.81
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
20%
4.89
8%
12.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.6 | 13.4 | 4.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 20.2 | 12.0 | 3.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 24.2%.
How many goals are Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Suwon Bluewings and 0.59 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 1.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon Bluewings vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon Bluewings
Pre-Season
FC Seoul
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 May 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Suwon Bluewings's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Suwon Bluewings
1
Draws
6
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon Bluewings have won 3, FC Seoul have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 25 November 2023, when FC Seoul 0-1 Suwon Bluewings.
Who has won more matches between Suwon Bluewings and FC Seoul?
FC Seoul have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon Bluewings home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as FC Seoul defy the odds to beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Seoul beat Suwon Bluewings 1-2 at Suwon World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon Bluewings 0.89 xG and FC Seoul 0.59 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. FC Seoul outscored their 0.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon Bluewings attack 0.88 / defence 0.92 against FC Seoul attack 0.66 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon Bluewings 37% | Draw 43% | FC Seoul 20%, with the draw its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a FC Seoul win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 47% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.