Daegu FC 2-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ulsan Hyundai FC make the trip to DGB Arena to face Daegu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 21 March 2021 at 10:00 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Daegu FC 0.92 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Daegu FC attack 0.907 / defence 1.543 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.809 / defence 1.049. League average goals — home 0.967 / away 1.021. Data: 5 Daegu FC games / 5 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Daegu FC 23% | Draw 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%. Fair-value odds: Daegu FC 4.35 | Draw 2.78 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: DGB Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 21 Mar 2021, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Daegu FC 23% | Draw 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 47% | xG Daegu FC 0.92 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Daegu FC attack 0.907 / def 1.543 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.809 / def 1.049 | league avg home 0.967 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Daegu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 21 March 2021 at DGB Arena.
What was the final score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Daegu FC 2 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at DGB Arena.
What competition is Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Daegu FC a 23% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 41% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Daegu FC's attack at 0.91x the league average against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.92 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack (0.81x) against Daegu FC's defence (1.54x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.8%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
23%
4.35
36%
2.76
41%
2.45
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Daegu FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.27
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
4.35
23%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
2.45
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.12
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
28%
3.58
40%
2.51
Win to Nil
6%
15.58
16%
6.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 14.2 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Daegu FC and 1.27 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Daegu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Daegu FC
Pre-Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 26 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Daegu FC have gone 0W 2D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Ulsan Hyundai FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Daegu FC
4
Draws
6
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Daegu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 26 October 2025, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-1 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Daegu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Daegu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Daegu FC defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daegu FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-1 at DGB Arena, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Daegu FC 0.92 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.27 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Daegu FC beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Daegu FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.54 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Daegu FC 23% | Draw 36% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 41%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a Daegu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.