Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%, yet in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 12). Kick-off is Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 08:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).
In front of their own supporters, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Across their last 10 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 2W 4D 4L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 0W 3D 7L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.30 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
On current form, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the edge — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.50 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 8 H2H matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 22 Mar 2026, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0–0 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 60% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.02 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.918 / defence 1.078 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.991 / defence 1.033. League average goals — home 1.074 / away 1.358. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 44 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 44.
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.78 | Draw 3.77 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.13. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.47. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.47 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gimcheon Sangmu FC (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.47 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 55% — low conviction — though recent form (Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 10 home games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 2.8 goals per game across 8 H2H matches point the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on No. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 70% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 12 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 5 May 2026 at 08:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% (Under 55%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.02 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.918 / def 1.078 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.991 / def 1.033 | league avg home 1.074 / away 1.358 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.45
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC FAQs
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 UK time on Tuesday 5 May 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 12) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 26% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 47% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (55%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.92x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (1.03x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.02. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence, projects 1.45 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 44 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
26%
3.78
27%
3.77
47%
2.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.47
1.45
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.78
26%
Home win
3.77
27%
Draw
2.13
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.27
36%
2.77
Win to Nil
6%
16.13
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.5 | 12.3 | 8.9 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 12.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.4 | 6.4 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.45 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.47.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.63 PPG on a 36W 16D 24L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 32W 20D 24L from 76 games, 1.53 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gimcheon Sangmu FC on 1.63 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.84 PPG from their last 38 home games (21W 7D 10L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 11W 12D 15L from their last 38 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gimcheon Sangmu FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.37 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Defensively: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (Home) vs Ulsan Hyundai FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Form FAQs
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.84 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from March 2024. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Ulsan Hyundai FC have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Oct 2025, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC won Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
5
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Ulsan Hyundai FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 37%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 34% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 34% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 60% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Ulsan Hyundai FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ulsan Hyundai FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1-2 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.02 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.45 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 26% | Draw 27% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ulsan Hyundai FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.