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Gimcheon Sangmu FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 10, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.71 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.76 xG, a combined 1.47. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.86 / defence 0.77 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.68, drawn from 42/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 30% | Draw 37% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 43% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 27% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.05 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights