Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2-2 Jeonbuk Motors – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors meet at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 29. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 3 September 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Gimcheon Stadium, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 2D 7L this season (10 games, 0.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Jeonbuk Motors (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: L D W L D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 8W 0D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Jeonbuk Motors arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading
Gimcheon Sangmu FC half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Jeonbuk Motors half-time and goal-timing data (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 54% versus Jeonbuk Motors 54%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43% | Jeonbuk Motors 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.82 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.748 / defence 1.060 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.038 / defence 0.760. League average goals — home 1.449 / away 1.246. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack strength of 0.748 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Jeonbuk Motors's defence strength of 0.760 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 28 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 61 Jeonbuk Motors games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 49%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 4.55 | Draw 3.45 | Jeonbuk Motors 2.04. Jeonbuk Motors hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Jeonbuk Motors at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 42% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% | Jeonbuk Motors 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Sep 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 42% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.82 / Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.748 / def 1.060 | Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.038 / def 0.760 | league avg home 1.449 / away 1.246 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
42%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 3 September 2022 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2 - 2 Jeonbuk Motors.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 22% chance of winning, Jeonbuk Motors a 49% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.75x league average) is weighed against Jeonbuk Motors's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Jeonbuk Motors's attack (1.04x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.06x) — and the away total comes out at 1.37.
These ratings are built from 28/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.6%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
22%
4.53
29%
3.49
49%
2.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
0 – 0
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.37
Jeonbuk Motors xG
4.53
22%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
2.03
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.37
58%
BTTS No
1.73
Clean Sheet
25%
3.94
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
6%
17.86
22%
4.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.1 | 15.3 | 10.5 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.6 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.37 for Jeonbuk Motors, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent record stands at 6W 9D 13L from 28 games, a 0.96 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five.
Jeonbuk Motors, meanwhile, have gone 14W 8D 6L across 28 games — 1.79 PPG, with L-D-W-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.83 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Gimcheon Sangmu FC heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have managed 4W 3D 7L from 14 games — 1.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Jeonbuk Motors's away record stands at 10W 1D 3L across 14 trips, a 2.21 PPG haul. That's actually stronger than their 1.79 PPG overall record — Jeonbuk Motors travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Jeonbuk Motors are on 1.29 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Last 28 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 9D 13L in their last 28 games (0.96 PPG), while Jeonbuk Motors have gone 14W 8D 6L in their last 28 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or Jeonbuk Motors away?
Jeonbuk Motors's away record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.07 PPG; Jeonbuk Motors away: 2.21 PPG.
Have Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Jeonbuk Motors been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Jeonbuk Motors in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 17 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 4-0 on 14 Jul 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
3
Draws
3
Jeonbuk Motors
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
From 10 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, Jeonbuk Motors have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, Jeonbuk Motors 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 43% (Jeonbuk Motors).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors in 50%; Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / Jeonbuk Motors away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play Jeonbuk Motors?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent matches and 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Jeonbuk Motors usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 43% of Jeonbuk Motors's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Jeonbuk Motors in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 29, as Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Jeonbuk Motors drew 2-2 in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.82 xG and Jeonbuk Motors 1.37 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.75 / defence 1.06 against Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.04 / defence 0.76, drawn from 28/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 22% | Draw 29% | Jeonbuk Motors 49%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 49%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 43%, Jeonbuk Motors 36%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.79 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.