Gangwon FC 0-1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chuncheon Songam Stadium plays host to Gangwon FC versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off: Tuesday 6 September 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gangwon FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 6W 0D 4L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: L W L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 2W 3D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Gangwon FC's 1.80 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Gangwon FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 62% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 55% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.54 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.121 / defence 1.096 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.958 / defence 0.938. League average goals — home 1.464 / away 1.252. Data: 62 Gangwon FC games / 29 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 43% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.33 | Draw 4.00 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.85. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.85 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.85 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 80% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Tuesday 6 Sep 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 43% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 57% | xG Gangwon FC 1.54 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.121 / def 1.096 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.958 / def 0.938 | league avg home 1.464 / away 1.252 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.54
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.31
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Tuesday 6 September 2022 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC 0 - 1 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 43% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 33% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-W-W. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.12) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.54 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.96x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.31.
These ratings are built from 62/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
43%
2.34
25%
4.03
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.54
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.85
1.31
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.34
43%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
27%
3.72
21%
4.66
Win to Nil
11%
8.72
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 7.6 | 5.0 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 11.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 9.0 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.54 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.31 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 29 games, going 11W 6D 12L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 0.97 PPG from 29 outings (6W 10D 13L), a run that reads W-L-L-D-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Gangwon FC against 0.97 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 7W 2D 5L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.64 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 0.86 points per game from 14 outings (2W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.41 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.21 scored and 1.24 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gangwon FC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 29 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 11W 6D 12L in their last 29 games (1.34 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 6W 10D 13L in their last 29 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.64 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.86 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 57%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Gangwon FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Gangwon FC's games and 57% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Gangwon FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Gangwon FC 0-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.54 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.31 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gangwon FC fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.12 / defence 1.10 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.94, drawn from 62/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 43% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Gimcheon Sangmu FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 55%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.34 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.