Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-3 Incheon United – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Incheon United at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Gimcheon Sangmu FC face Incheon United.

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Fixture Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC welcome Incheon United to Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 08:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 0D 5L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: W L L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 5W 0D 5L (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.

Incheon United — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

Incheon United's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 2D 4L (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) versus 1.10 (Incheon United). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

H2H Record

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, Incheon United 3, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.

The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 5 Apr 2026, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–2 Incheon United — a Incheon United win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

In-Play Data

Gimcheon Sangmu FC trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games).

Incheon United trading profile (last 38 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 53% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% versus Incheon United 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 53% | Incheon United 42%). Note also that Incheon United surrender HT leads in 29% of cases while Gimcheon Sangmu FC recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Incheon United 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.936 / defence 1.143 | Incheon United attack 0.911 / defence 1.121. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.310. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 45 games and Incheon United's last 12.

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 29% | Draw 30% | Incheon United 41%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.49 | Draw 3.33 | Incheon United 2.42. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Incheon United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Incheon United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.46 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 30% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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