Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 FC Anyang – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 2W 7D 1L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D D W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Anyang's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 4W 3D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.50 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.50 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Form favours the hosts. Gimcheon Sangmu FC's 1.30 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of FC Anyang's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Anyang in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 56% and FC Anyang 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44% | FC Anyang 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.37 xG and FC Anyang 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.968 / defence 1.035 | FC Anyang attack 0.976 / defence 1.165. League average goals — home 1.218 / away 1.273. Data: 63 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 63 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 32%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.78 | Draw 3.12 | FC Anyang 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.66. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.66 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC as the most likely outcome at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.66 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | FC Anyang 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.37 / FC Anyang 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.968 / def 1.035 | FC Anyang attack 0.976 / def 1.165 | league avg home 1.218 / away 1.273 • Poisson stance: Gimcheon Sangmu FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
FC Anyang xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang kicked off at 07:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
What was the final score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0 - 1 FC Anyang.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 36% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 32% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Gimcheon Sangmu FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
Record (5 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 2 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-7D-1L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-D-D-D-W. FC Anyang (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.98x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.29.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gimcheon Sangmu FC Win
36%
2.78
32%
3.12
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.66
1.29
FC Anyang xG
2.78
36%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
28%
3.62
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
10%
10.05
8%
12.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.0 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.4 | 7.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.6 | 8.5 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.9 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.29 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.66.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 68 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.38 PPG on a 23W 25D 20L record — L-D-D-D-W across the most recent five.
FC Anyang's form line: 23W 18D 27L from 68 games, 1.28 PPG, last five D-L-L-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.38 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.28 for FC Anyang. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.35 PPG from 34 outings (11W 13D 10L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 11W 9D 14L from 34 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.28 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 66%.
Last 68 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Current Season
FC Anyang
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 23W 25D 20L in their last 68 games (1.38 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 23W 18D 27L in their last 68 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.35 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.35 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Anyang won 4-1 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
2
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
From 6 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 FC Anyang.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, FC Anyang 68% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 50% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 68% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 50% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as FC Anyang defy the odds to beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC Anyang beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.37 xG and FC Anyang 1.29 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Gimcheon Sangmu FC fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.97 / defence 1.03 against FC Anyang attack 0.98 / defence 1.17, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 36% | Draw 32% | FC Anyang 32%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual FC Anyang win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, FC Anyang 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Anyang's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.38 PPG, FC Anyang 1.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward. FC Anyang (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.32 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.