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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-0 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 6, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 0.78 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.80 / defence 0.99 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.04 / defence 0.88, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 23% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a Pohang Steelers win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.54. Form was overturned, with Pohang Steelers winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights