Pohang Steelers 1-0 Suwon Bluewings – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Pohang Steelers at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Pohang Steelers host Suwon Bluewings at Steelyard Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 July 2022 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Pohang Steelers — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: W L D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Pohang Steelers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Pohang Steelers at Steelyard Stadium this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Suwon Bluewings have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Suwon Bluewings, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Suwon Bluewings have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Pohang Steelers have the edge — a 0.70 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Pohang Steelers have won 0, Suwon Bluewings 1, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 4 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 12 Mar 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Pohang Steelers in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Suwon Bluewings in-play and half-time data (58 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Pohang Steelers 50% versus Suwon Bluewings 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Pohang Steelers 38% | Suwon Bluewings 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Pohang Steelers 1.63 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.57 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Pohang Steelers attack 1.083 / defence 0.719 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.683 / defence 1.152. League average goals — home 1.304 / away 1.154. Pohang Steelers's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 53 Pohang Steelers games / 53 Suwon Bluewings games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 63% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 12%. Fair-value odds: Pohang Steelers 1.59 | Draw 3.85 | Suwon Bluewings 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Pohang Steelers (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Pohang Steelers are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.19 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 36%. Form rates corroborate: Pohang Steelers 50% | Suwon Bluewings 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Steelyard Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Jul 2022, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Pohang Steelers 63% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 36% | xG Pohang Steelers 1.63 / Suwon Bluewings 0.57 • Poisson strength factors: Pohang Steelers attack 1.083 / def 0.719 | Suwon Bluewings attack 0.683 / def 1.152 | league avg home 1.304 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Pohang Steelers (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Pohang Steelers xG
Expected Goals
0.57
Suwon Bluewings xG
36%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings kick off?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 10 July 2022 at Steelyard Stadium.
What was the final score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Pohang Steelers 1 - 0 Suwon Bluewings.
Where is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings being played?
The match is being played at Steelyard Stadium.
What competition is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings part of?
Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our statistical model gives Pohang Steelers a 63% chance of winning, Suwon Bluewings a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Pohang Steelers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings will score (BTTS).
Will Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
Record (4 meetings): Pohang Steelers 0W | Draws 3 | Suwon Bluewings 1W.
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings in?
Pohang Steelers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-D-W-W. Suwon Bluewings (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Pohang Steelers's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against Suwon Bluewings's defensive record (1.15x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.63. The same calculation in reverse, Suwon Bluewings's attack versus Pohang Steelers's defence, projects 0.57 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 16.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.8%), 0-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Pohang Steelers Win
63%
1.60
26%
3.89
12%
8.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.8%
Home win
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Pohang Steelers xG
Total xG
2.19
0.57
Suwon Bluewings xG
1.60
63%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
8.50
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.81
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
57%
1.76
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
36%
2.82
2%
43.23
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 6.3 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 18.2 | 10.3 | 2.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.8 | 8.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.0 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.8%.
How many goals are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Pohang Steelers and 0.57 for Suwon Bluewings, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Pohang Steelers's recent record stands at 21W 16D 21L from 58 games, a 1.36 PPG return, with W-L-D-W-W in the last five. The sample for Pohang Steelers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Suwon Bluewings, meanwhile, have gone 16W 18D 24L across 58 games — 1.14 PPG, with L-L-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Suwon Bluewings is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Pohang Steelers on 1.36 PPG, Suwon Bluewings on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Pohang Steelers have managed 10W 8D 10L from 28 games — 1.36 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Suwon Bluewings's away record stands at 7W 8D 13L across 28 trips, a 1.04 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Pohang Steelers are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Suwon Bluewings are on 0.97 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Pohang Steelers
Blended
Suwon Bluewings
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings in coming into this match?
Pohang Steelers have gone 21W 16D 21L in their last 58 games (1.36 PPG), while Suwon Bluewings have gone 16W 18D 24L in their last 58 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Pohang Steelers at home or Suwon Bluewings away?
Pohang Steelers's home record (1.36 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Pohang Steelers at home: 1.36 PPG; Suwon Bluewings away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Pohang Steelers or Suwon Bluewings been keeping clean sheets recently?
Pohang Steelers have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Suwon Bluewings in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 October 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Mar 2021, when Suwon Bluewings won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Pohang Steelers's record when hosting Suwon Bluewings specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Pohang Steelers
4
Draws
2
Suwon Bluewings
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
From 9 meetings on record, Pohang Steelers have won 3, Suwon Bluewings have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings last play each other?
They last met on 8 October 2023, when Suwon Bluewings 1-0 Pohang Steelers.
Who has won more matches between Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings?
Pohang Steelers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Pohang Steelers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Suwon Bluewings see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Pohang Steelers 46%, Suwon Bluewings 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Pohang Steelers) and 43% (Suwon Bluewings).
On the defensive side: Pohang Steelers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Suwon Bluewings in 32%; Suwon Bluewings in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Pohang Steelers home games / Suwon Bluewings away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Pohang Steelers play Suwon Bluewings?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Pohang Steelers's recent matches and 36% of Suwon Bluewings's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Pohang Steelers vs Suwon Bluewings usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Pohang Steelers's recent games and 43% of Suwon Bluewings's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Pohang Steelers and Suwon Bluewings tend to score early?
Pohang Steelers have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Suwon Bluewings in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Pohang Steelers edge out Suwon Bluewings 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Pohang Steelers beat Suwon Bluewings 1-0 at Steelyard Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.63 xG and Suwon Bluewings 0.57 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 1.08 / defence 0.72 against Suwon Bluewings attack 0.68 / defence 1.15, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 63% | Draw 26% | Suwon Bluewings 12%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 38%, Suwon Bluewings 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Pohang Steelers's trading profile (58 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Suwon Bluewings's trading profile (58 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.36 PPG, Suwon Bluewings 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Suwon Bluewings (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.