Gangwon FC 3-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gangwon FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Chuncheon Songam Stadium plays host to Gangwon FC versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 21. Kick-off: Friday 8 July 2022 at 11:30 UTC.
Current Form
Gangwon FC's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 1W 4D 5L across 10 K League 1 outings this term — 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.10 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading & In-Play
Gangwon FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (home games).
Gimcheon Sangmu FC — key trading statistics (20 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 55% versus Gimcheon Sangmu FC 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 45% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.70 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.130 / defence 1.102 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.987 / defence 1.200. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.114. Data: 53 Gangwon FC games / 20 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 48% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.08 | Draw 4.00 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.70. Gangwon FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.91 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 56% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 50% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 8 Jul 2022, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 48% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 58% | xG Gangwon FC 1.70 / Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 1.130 / def 1.102 | Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.987 / def 1.200 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.114 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
58%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 8 July 2022 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC 3 - 2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 48% chance of winning, Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 27% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-W-W-L. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Gangwon FC's attack rating (1.13) and Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence rating (1.20), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attack (0.99x) against Gangwon FC's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 1.21.
These ratings are built from 53/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
48%
2.07
25%
4.01
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.91
1.21
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
2.07
48%
Home win
4.01
25%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.37
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
18%
5.47
Win to Nil
14%
6.95
5%
20.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 11.2 | 6.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.21 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gangwon FC come into this having played 20 games, going 5W 6D 9L for 1.05 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-W-W-L. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gimcheon Sangmu FC sit at 1.10 PPG from 20 outings (5W 7D 8L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-W across their last five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.05 PPG for Gangwon FC against 1.10 for Gimcheon Sangmu FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Gangwon FC's home form reads 4W 2D 4L across 10 games on their own ground, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have taken 0.70 points per game from 10 outings (1W 4D 5L). That's a step down from their 1.10 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.15 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Gimcheon Sangmu FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 20 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 5W 6D 9L in their last 20 games (1.05 PPG), while Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 5W 7D 8L in their last 20 (1.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Gimcheon Sangmu FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.40 PPG; Gimcheon Sangmu FC away: 0.70 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 18 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Gangwon FC go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Gimcheon Sangmu FC won 0-4 on 11 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gimcheon Sangmu FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gangwon FC
1
Draws
4
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 5, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC last play each other?
They last met on 18 July 2026, when Gangwon FC 2-0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 50%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 30% (Gangwon FC) and 50% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Gimcheon Sangmu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Gimcheon Sangmu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gangwon FC's games and 60% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gangwon FC vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 30% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gangwon FC edge out Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC beat Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3-2 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.70 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.21 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 1.13 / defence 1.10 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.20, drawn from 53/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 48% | Draw 25% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 27%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 48%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 33% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 45%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (20 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.05 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gangwon FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.20 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.