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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Pohang Steelers 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat Pohang Steelers 0-1 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.30 xG and Gwangju FC 0.83 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Pohang Steelers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.98 / defence 0.88 against Gwangju FC attack 0.88 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 48% | Draw 29% | Gwangju FC 24%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 48%. Instead the game produced a Gwangju FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Gwangju FC 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights