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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Daejeon Citizen run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Pohang Steelers.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Pohang Steelers 0-3 at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 1, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.50 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.21 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.21 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.96 / defence 0.96 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.02 / defence 1.04, drawn from 33/33 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 44% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 31%, with Pohang Steelers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Daejeon Citizen win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 43%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.34 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.66 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights