Red card controversy as neither side claim a 0-0 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Pohang Steel Yard, Regular Season - 5, as Pohang Steelers and Bucheon FC 1995 drew 0-0 in the K League 1. It was 0-0 at the break. A red card featured along the way. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Pohang Steelers 1.23 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.27 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Pohang Steelers fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Bucheon FC 1995 landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Pohang Steelers attack 0.81 / defence 0.97 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 1.10 / defence 1.18, drawn from 36/4 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Pohang Steelers 31% | Draw 35% | Bucheon FC 1995 34%, with the draw its most likely call at 35%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Pohang Steelers 0%, Bucheon FC 1995 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 25%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Form vs Result

On form, Bucheon FC 1995 arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bucheon FC 1995 managed 0 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.

In-Play Signals

Pohang Steelers controlled the ball (50%). The model had leaned the other way, toward Bucheon FC 1995; and the extra possession only earned a share of the spoils. Bucheon FC 1995 shot more often (13 to 11, 2 on target). The game stayed goalless into the break before it came to life.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics