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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Jeonbuk Motors winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights