Jeonbuk Motors 3-1 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 40%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 17 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 31 May 2025, 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Jeonbuk Motors are significantly better at Jeonju World Cup Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 0.90 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.50), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Jeonbuk Motors, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 1 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with Ulsan Hyundai FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 49% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 45% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.162 / defence 0.915 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.900 / defence 0.888. League average goals — home 1.115 / away 1.154. Data: 49 Jeonbuk Motors games / 51 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.50 | Draw 3.33 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Jeonbuk Motors are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (2.40 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.10 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 31 May 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 42% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.162 / def 0.915 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.900 / def 0.888 | league avg home 1.115 / away 1.154 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
42%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 31 May 2025 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 3 - 1 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 40% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (5 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 1W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.16) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.15 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 1-0 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
40%
2.49
30%
3.36
30%
3.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.10
0.95
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
3.33
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.39
58%
BTTS No
1.72
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
16%
6.43
10%
10.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.6 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.1 | 13.4 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.7 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.95 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 76 games, going 28W 20D 28L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.95 PPG from 76 outings (44W 16D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-D-W across their last five.
Ulsan Hyundai FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.58 PPG clear of Jeonbuk Motors — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 17W 11D 10L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.63 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.58 points per game from 38 outings (17W 9D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.64 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 28W 20D 28L in their last 76 games (1.37 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 44W 16D 16L in their last 76 (1.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.63 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 4W 1D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 60%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 42% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 34%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent matches and 47% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 42% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 3-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.95 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.16 / defence 0.92 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.89, drawn from 49/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 40% | Draw 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 45%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.37. Form was overturned, with Jeonbuk Motors winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.42 average — above their attacking norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.