Jeonbuk Motors 2-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A K League 1 encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Ulsan Hyundai FC travel to Jeonju World Cup Stadium to take on Jeonbuk Motors. The game is scheduled for Saturday 3 June 2023, 08:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Jeonbuk Motors stand at 7W 2D 1L from 10 K League 1 matches — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Jeonbuk Motors's form when playing at home: 6W 4D 0L across 10 games at Jeonju World Cup Stadium this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ulsan Hyundai FC away from home this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Jeonbuk Motors are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.60 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 1.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Trading Patterns
Jeonbuk Motors in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.56 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.025 / defence 0.946 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.269 / defence 0.889. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.297. Ulsan Hyundai FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.269 — the away xG of 1.56 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 48 Jeonbuk Motors games / 48 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 27% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 3.70 | Draw 3.85 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.13. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Ulsan Hyundai FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Jeonbuk Motors (2.30 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jun 2023, 08:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 27% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 53% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.56 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.025 / def 0.946 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.269 / def 0.889 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.56
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
53%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 08:30 on Saturday 3 June 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 2 - 0 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 27% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 47% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Jeonbuk Motors's attack rating (1.02) and Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence rating (0.89), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.56 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 0-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
27%
3.68
26%
3.89
47%
2.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.68
1.56
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.68
27%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
2.12
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.87
47%
BTTS No
2.15
Clean Sheet
21%
4.74
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
6%
17.48
15%
6.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 10.7 | 8.3 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.7 | 12.0 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.7 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.56 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors come into this having played 76 games, going 43W 20D 13L for 1.96 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-W.
On the other side, Ulsan Hyundai FC sit at 1.97 PPG from 76 outings (43W 21D 12L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.96 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.97. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Jeonbuk Motors's home form reads 21W 11D 6L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.95 PPG return.
Away from home, Ulsan Hyundai FC have taken 1.74 points per game from 38 outings (18W 12D 8L).
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.59 scored and 0.99 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 43W 21D 12L in their last 76 (1.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.95 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.74 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 11 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 11 July 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 1-3 Jeonbuk Motors.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 53% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 58% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 53% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Jeonbuk Motors cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ulsan Hyundai FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.12 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.56 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Jeonbuk Motors beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.89, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 27% | Draw 26% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 47%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Jeonbuk Motors win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.96 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeonbuk Motors win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.