Jeonbuk Motors 1-0 Daegu FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Jeonbuk Motors at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Jeonbuk Motors host Daegu FC at Jeonju World Cup Stadium in K League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 7 June 2023 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Jeonbuk Motors — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 K League 1 outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters this season, Jeonbuk Motors have posted 6W 4D 0L at Jeonju World Cup Stadium — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all K League 1 games this season, Daegu FC have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 2.00. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Daegu FC's away record: 2W 4D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 2.30 PPG (Jeonbuk Motors) versus 1.80 (Daegu FC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Daegu FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Data
Jeonbuk Motors trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Daegu FC trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 54% versus Daegu FC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 46% | Daegu FC 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG and Daegu FC 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / defence 0.799 | Daegu FC attack 0.834 / defence 0.845. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.321. Jeonbuk Motors's defence rating of 0.799 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Jeonbuk Motors games / 49 Daegu FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Daegu FC 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Jeonbuk Motors as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Jeonbuk Motors offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. This conflicts with form data: Jeonbuk Motors 60% | Daegu FC 80% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 7 Jun 2023, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 / Daegu FC 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.062 / def 0.799 | Daegu FC attack 0.834 / def 0.845 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.321 • Poisson stance: Jeonbuk Motors (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Daegu FC xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC kicked off at 11:00 on Wednesday 7 June 2023 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 1 - 0 Daegu FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 42% chance of winning, Daegu FC a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Jeonbuk Motors the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Daegu FC (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-W-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.06x the league average against Daegu FC's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daegu FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 0.88 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 49/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.8%), 1-0 (13.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Jeonbuk Motors Win
42%
2.39
30%
3.29
28%
3.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.03
0.88
Daegu FC xG
2.39
42%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
3.61
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.49
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
41%
2.41
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
17%
5.76
9%
11.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.1 | 11.5 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.1 | 13.3 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 0.88 for Daegu FC, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 43W 20D 13L from 76 games, a 1.96 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Daegu FC, meanwhile, have gone 25W 26D 25L across 76 games — 1.33 PPG, with W-W-W-D-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Jeonbuk Motors by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Daegu FC heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 21W 11D 6L from 38 games — 1.95 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Daegu FC's away record stands at 9W 14D 15L across 38 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Jeonbuk Motors come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Daegu FC are on 1.22 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Current Season
Daegu FC
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 43W 20D 13L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Daegu FC have gone 25W 26D 25L in their last 76 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Daegu FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.95 PPG; Daegu FC away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Daegu FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Daegu FC in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 16 August 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeonbuk Motors go into this on the back of 4 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 May 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Daegu FC specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Jeonbuk Motors
1
Draws
3
Daegu FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 6, Daegu FC have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2025, when Jeonbuk Motors 3-0 Daegu FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Daegu FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 55%, Daegu FC 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 53% (Daegu FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Daegu FC in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Daegu FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Daegu FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 66% of Daegu FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Daegu FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 53% of Daegu FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Daegu FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, Daegu FC in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Jeonbuk Motors edge out Daegu FC 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeonbuk Motors beat Daegu FC 1-0 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.15 xG and Daegu FC 0.88 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Daegu FC landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Daegu FC attack 0.83 / defence 0.84, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 42% | Draw 30% | Daegu FC 28%, with Jeonbuk Motors to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 46%, Daegu FC 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Daegu FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Jeonbuk Motors arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Daegu FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.