Jeonbuk Motors 0-1 Gwangju FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gwangju FC at 38% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 26 as Jeonbuk Motors welcome Gwangju FC to Jeonju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 9 August 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Jeonbuk Motors, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Jeonbuk Motors have gone 3W 4D 3L this season (10 games, 1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gwangju FC stand at 6W 0D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gwangju FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Gwangju FC have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Gwangju FC — 0.90 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.90). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Jeonbuk Motors register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Gwangju FC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Jeonbuk Motors have won 2, Gwangju FC 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 May 2024, ended 3–0 with Jeonbuk Motors winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Jeonbuk Motors in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Gwangju FC in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeonbuk Motors 51% versus Gwangju FC 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeonbuk Motors 44% | Gwangju FC 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeonbuk Motors 1.34 xG and Gwangju FC 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.049 / defence 1.281 | Gwangju FC attack 0.943 / defence 0.867. League average goals — home 1.475 / away 1.130. Data: 58 Jeonbuk Motors games / 58 Gwangju FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 37% | Draw 26% | Gwangju FC 38%. Fair-value odds: Jeonbuk Motors 2.70 | Draw 3.85 | Gwangju FC 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.71. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.71 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gwangju FC as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gwangju FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.71 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Jeonbuk Motors 80% | Gwangju FC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Jeonju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 9 Aug 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeonbuk Motors 37% | Draw 26% | Gwangju FC 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Jeonbuk Motors 1.34 / Gwangju FC 1.36 • Poisson strength factors: Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.049 / def 1.281 | Gwangju FC attack 0.943 / def 0.867 | league avg home 1.475 / away 1.130 • Poisson stance: Gwangju FC (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Expected Goals
1.36
Gwangju FC xG
55%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC kick off?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC kicked off at 11:30 on Friday 9 August 2024 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Jeonbuk Motors 0 - 1 Gwangju FC.
Where is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC being played?
The match is being played at Jeonju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC part of?
Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Our statistical model gives Jeonbuk Motors a 37% chance of winning, Gwangju FC a 38% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Gwangju FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC will score (BTTS).
Will Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC?
Record (2 meetings): Jeonbuk Motors 2W | Draws 0 | Gwangju FC 0W.
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC in?
Jeonbuk Motors (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Gwangju FC (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeonbuk Motors's attack at 1.05x the league average against Gwangju FC's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gwangju FC's attack versus Jeonbuk Motors's defence, projects 1.36 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 0-0 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gwangju FC Win
37%
2.73
26%
3.88
38%
2.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Jeonbuk Motors xG
Total xG
2.71
1.36
Gwangju FC xG
2.73
37%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
2.66
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
26%
3.92
26%
3.83
Win to Nil
9%
10.70
10%
10.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.7 | 9.1 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.2 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.2 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.7 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Jeonbuk Motors and 1.36 for Gwangju FC, a combined total of 2.71.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeonbuk Motors's recent record stands at 21W 17D 25L from 63 games, a 1.27 PPG return, with D-W-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jeonbuk Motors is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gwangju FC, meanwhile, have gone 27W 12D 24L across 63 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-L-W-W in their last five. The sample for Gwangju FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeonbuk Motors on 1.27 PPG, Gwangju FC on 1.48. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeonbuk Motors have managed 13W 10D 8L from 31 games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Gwangju FC's away record stands at 11W 8D 12L across 31 trips, a 1.32 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeonbuk Motors are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game recently; Gwangju FC are on 1.25 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeonbuk Motors
Blended
Gwangju FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC in coming into this match?
Jeonbuk Motors have gone 21W 17D 25L in their last 63 games (1.27 PPG), while Gwangju FC have gone 27W 12D 24L in their last 63 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeonbuk Motors at home or Gwangju FC away?
Jeonbuk Motors's home record (1.58 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeonbuk Motors at home: 1.58 PPG; Gwangju FC away: 1.32 PPG.
Have Jeonbuk Motors or Gwangju FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Jeonbuk Motors have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Gwangju FC in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 May 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Jeonbuk Motors's record when hosting Gwangju FC specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeonbuk Motors
4
Draws
1
Gwangju FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeonbuk Motors have won 5, Gwangju FC have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Jeonbuk Motors 2-2 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC?
Jeonbuk Motors have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeonbuk Motors are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Gwangju FC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeonbuk Motors 64%, Gwangju FC 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Jeonbuk Motors) and 36% (Gwangju FC).
On the defensive side: Jeonbuk Motors keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeonbuk Motors home games / Gwangju FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeonbuk Motors play Gwangju FC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Jeonbuk Motors's games and 55% of Gwangju FC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeonbuk Motors vs Gwangju FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Jeonbuk Motors's recent games and 36% of Gwangju FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeonbuk Motors and Gwangju FC tend to score early?
Jeonbuk Motors have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Gwangju FC in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Gwangju FC edge out Jeonbuk Motors 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC beat Jeonbuk Motors 0-1 at Jeonju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeonbuk Motors 1.34 xG and Gwangju FC 1.36 xG, a combined 2.71. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jeonbuk Motors fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeonbuk Motors attack 1.05 / defence 1.28 against Gwangju FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.87, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeonbuk Motors 37% | Draw 26% | Gwangju FC 38%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 38%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeonbuk Motors 44%, Gwangju FC 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeonbuk Motors's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gwangju FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeonbuk Motors 1.27 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeonbuk Motors (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.48 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.