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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gimcheon Sangmu FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Jeju United FC 2-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.52 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.02 xG, a combined 2.55. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Gimcheon Sangmu FC outscored their 1.02 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.07 / defence 0.89 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.11, drawn from 34/34 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 49% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 25%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Gimcheon Sangmu FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 47%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.29 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.66 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gimcheon Sangmu FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gimcheon Sangmu FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.26 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights