Jeju United FC 0-1 Incheon United – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Jeju United FC at 41% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs Incheon United encounter.

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Analysis

Incheon United make the trip to Jeju World Cup Stadium to face Jeju United FC in K League 1 (matchday 26). The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 12:30 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Jeju United FC have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 4W 0D 6L. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Jeju United FC's home record over their last 10 home games: 6W 0D 4L (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Jeju United FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Incheon United (all games): 1W 3D 6L across their last 10 — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

On the road, Incheon United have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.60 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

The form ledger tips toward Jeju United FC. A 0.60 PPG lead over Incheon United (1.20 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

Neither side has dominated the 5 H2H matches in our data: 3 wins for Jeju United FC, 2 for Incheon United and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.6 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Jun 2024, ended Jeju United FC 1–0 Incheon United — a Jeju United FC win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.6 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Data

Jeju United FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 58% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).

Incheon United goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 63 games, 31 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 64% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 18 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 51% versus Incheon United 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 44% | Incheon United 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.32 xG and Incheon United 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 1.008 / defence 1.002 | Incheon United attack 0.999 / defence 0.908. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.129. Data: built from Jeju United FC's last 58 games and Incheon United's last 58.

Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 41% | Draw 27% | Incheon United 32%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 2.44 | Draw 3.68 | Incheon United 3.14. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.45. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.45 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Jeju United FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Jeju United FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.45 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.6 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Jeju United FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Incheon United 50% (last 10 away games).

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