Suwon City FC 1-2 Daejeon Citizen – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Suwon City FC (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Suwon City FC face Daejeon Citizen.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen meet at Suwon Sports Complex in K League 1, Regular Season - 26. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 11:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Suwon City FC have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 K League 1 outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Suwon City FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Suwon City FC's home record at Suwon Sports Complex: 6W 2D 2L from 10 K League 1 appearances (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Daejeon Citizen's overall K League 1 record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, Daejeon Citizen have posted 0W 4D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.40 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Suwon City FC's 1.70 PPG return is 0.70 points per game ahead of Daejeon Citizen's 1.00 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Suwon City FC have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins from 6 meetings, with Daejeon Citizen managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Jun 2024, ended 2–0 with Suwon City FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Suwon City FC and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Suwon City FC half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen half-time and goal-timing data (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Suwon City FC 60% and Daejeon Citizen 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Suwon City FC 56% | Daejeon Citizen 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Suwon City FC attack 0.991 / defence 1.020 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.886 / defence 1.143. League average goals — home 1.442 / away 1.129. Data: 58 Suwon City FC games / 58 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24%. Fair-value odds: Suwon City FC 1.92 | Draw 4.00 | Daejeon Citizen 4.17. Suwon City FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Suwon City FC as the most likely outcome at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Suwon City FC if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.65 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Suwon City FC 50% | Daejeon Citizen 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Suwon Sports Complex • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 11:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Suwon City FC 1.63 / Daejeon Citizen 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Suwon City FC attack 0.991 / def 1.020 | Daejeon Citizen attack 0.886 / def 1.143 | league avg home 1.442 / away 1.129 • Poisson stance: Suwon City FC (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Suwon City FC xG
Expected Goals
1.02
Daejeon Citizen xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen kicked off at 11:30 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Suwon Sports Complex.
What was the final score in Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Suwon City FC 1 - 2 Daejeon Citizen.
Where is Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Suwon Sports Complex.
What competition is Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Suwon City FC a 52% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 24% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Suwon City FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (6 meetings): Suwon City FC 4W | Draws 1 | Daejeon Citizen 1W.
What form are Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen in?
Suwon City FC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-W-D-W-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Suwon City FC's attack rating (0.99) and Daejeon Citizen's defence rating (1.14), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Daejeon Citizen's attack (0.89x) against Suwon City FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 58/58 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Suwon City FC Win
52%
1.93
25%
4.05
24%
4.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Suwon City FC xG
Total xG
2.65
1.02
Daejeon Citizen xG
1.93
52%
Home win
4.05
25%
Draw
4.23
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
20%
5.12
Win to Nil
19%
5.37
5%
21.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 7.2 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.7 | 6.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 4.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Suwon City FC and 1.02 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Suwon City FC come into this having played 63 games, going 21W 13D 29L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-L. The sample for Suwon City FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.14 PPG from 63 outings (16W 24D 23L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.21 PPG for Suwon City FC against 1.14 for Daejeon Citizen. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Suwon City FC's home form reads 11W 8D 12L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.32 PPG return.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 0.84 points per game from 31 outings (4W 14D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Suwon City FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Suwon City FC are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.76 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.27 scored and 1.49 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Suwon City FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Daejeon Citizen in 62%.
Last 63 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Suwon City FC
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Suwon City FC have gone 21W 13D 29L in their last 63 games (1.21 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 16W 24D 23L in their last 63 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Suwon City FC at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Suwon City FC's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Suwon City FC at home: 1.32 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 0.84 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Suwon City FC won 3-0 on 18 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Suwon City FC have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Daejeon Citizen — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Suwon City FC
1
Draws
4
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen?
From 10 meetings on record, Suwon City FC have won 5, Daejeon Citizen have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2025, when Daejeon Citizen 3-2 Suwon City FC.
Who has won more matches between Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen?
Suwon City FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Suwon City FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 64% for Suwon City FC, 68% for Daejeon Citizen — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Suwon City FC) and 48% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Suwon City FC home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Suwon City FC play Daejeon Citizen?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Suwon City FC's games and 68% of Daejeon Citizen's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Suwon City FC vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Suwon City FC's recent games and 48% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Suwon City FC and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Suwon City FC have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Daejeon Citizen defy the odds to beat Suwon City FC 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Daejeon Citizen beat Suwon City FC 1-2 at Suwon Sports Complex, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Suwon City FC 1.63 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.02 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.02 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Suwon City FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.02 against Daejeon Citizen attack 0.89 / defence 1.14, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Suwon City FC 52% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 24%, with Suwon City FC to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Daejeon Citizen win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Suwon City FC 56%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Suwon City FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Suwon City FC 1.21 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.