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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Gwangju FC defy the odds to beat Jeju United FC 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat Jeju United FC 0-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.11 xG and Gwangju FC 0.92 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Jeju United FC fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.90 / defence 0.90 against Gwangju FC attack 0.81 / defence 0.84, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 40% | Draw 30% | Gwangju FC 30%, with Jeju United FC to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Gwangju FC 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (65 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Gwangju FC's trading profile (65 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.23 PPG, Gwangju FC 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.23 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights