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Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 2-1 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. It was 1-0 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: Park Chang-Jun (18') · Kim Jun-ha (53') · L. Ruiz (57'). That is the bare outline; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.77 xG and FC Seoul 1.73 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against FC Seoul attack 1.30 / defence 0.96, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 15% | Draw 26% | FC Seoul 59%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 45%, FC Seoul 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 55% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

FC Seoul's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 62% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG, FC Seoul 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.19 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

In-Play Signals

FC Seoul controlled the ball (70%). That matched the side the model favoured, and they were undone despite it. FC Seoul shot more often (17 to 11, 6 on target). Jeju United FC were the sharper finishers, converting at 18% against 6% — the kind of finishing edge that decides games the underlying numbers call close. The scoring opened before half-time (1-0 at the interval). 2 of the 3 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics