Jeju United FC 3-2 FC Seoul – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Seoul at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 21 as Jeju United FC welcome FC Seoul to Jeju World Cup Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 6 July 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Jeju United FC have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: L L L W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Jeju United FC's home record at Jeju World Cup Stadium: 5W 0D 5L from 10 K League 1 appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at all fixtures this season, FC Seoul stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Seoul, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Seoul have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Jeju United FC) versus 1.50 (FC Seoul). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Jeju United FC, 2 for FC Seoul and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2024, ended 0–2 with FC Seoul winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Jeju United FC trading profile (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
FC Seoul trading profile (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Jeju United FC 50% versus FC Seoul 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Jeju United FC 41% | FC Seoul 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Jeju United FC 1.12 xG and FC Seoul 1.69 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Jeju United FC attack 0.866 / defence 1.099 | FC Seoul attack 1.349 / defence 0.892. League average goals — home 1.445 / away 1.141. FC Seoul have an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — the away xG of 1.69 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 53 Jeju United FC games / 53 FC Seoul games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Jeju United FC 25% | Draw 24% | FC Seoul 51%. Fair-value odds: Jeju United FC 4.00 | Draw 4.17 | FC Seoul 1.96. FC Seoul hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates FC Seoul as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Seoul offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 55% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Jeju United FC 40% | FC Seoul 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Jeju World Cup Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Jul 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Jeju United FC 25% | Draw 24% | FC Seoul 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 55% | xG Jeju United FC 1.12 / FC Seoul 1.69 • Poisson strength factors: Jeju United FC attack 0.866 / def 1.099 | FC Seoul attack 1.349 / def 0.892 | league avg home 1.445 / away 1.141 • Poisson stance: FC Seoul (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Jeju United FC xG
Expected Goals
1.69
FC Seoul xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kick off?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 6 July 2024 at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What was the final score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC 3 - 2 FC Seoul.
Where is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul being played?
The match is being played at Jeju World Cup Stadium.
What competition is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul part of?
Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our statistical model gives Jeju United FC a 25% chance of winning, FC Seoul a 51% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making FC Seoul the favourite.
Will both teams score in Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Jeju United FC and FC Seoul will score (BTTS).
Will Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
Record (3 meetings): Jeju United FC 0W | Draws 1 | FC Seoul 2W.
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in?
Jeju United FC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L. FC Seoul (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Jeju United FC's attack at 0.87x the league average against FC Seoul's defence at 0.89x — combine the two and it projects 1.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Seoul's attack versus Jeju United FC's defence, projects 1.69 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 53/53 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Seoul Win
25%
3.99
24%
4.15
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.2%
Away win
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Jeju United FC xG
Total xG
2.81
1.69
FC Seoul xG
3.99
25%
Home win
4.15
24%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
18%
5.43
33%
3.05
Win to Nil
5%
21.64
17%
6.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 10.2 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 9.6 | 5.4 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.4 | 5.4 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Jeju United FC and 1.69 for FC Seoul, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Jeju United FC's recent record stands at 17W 13D 28L from 58 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Jeju United FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Seoul, meanwhile, have gone 21W 19D 18L across 58 games — 1.41 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for FC Seoul is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Jeju United FC on 1.10 PPG, FC Seoul on 1.41. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Jeju United FC have managed 10W 7D 12L from 29 games — 1.28 PPG in front of their own supporters.
FC Seoul's away record stands at 10W 11D 8L across 29 trips, a 1.41 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Jeju United FC are averaging 1.07 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; FC Seoul are on 1.66 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Seoul in 62%.
Last 58 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Jeju United FC
Blended
FC Seoul
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Jeju United FC and FC Seoul in coming into this match?
Jeju United FC have gone 17W 13D 28L in their last 58 games (1.10 PPG), while FC Seoul have gone 21W 19D 18L in their last 58 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Jeju United FC at home or FC Seoul away?
FC Seoul's away record (1.41 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Jeju United FC at home: 1.28 PPG; FC Seoul away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Jeju United FC's record when hosting FC Seoul specifically: 4W 1D 2L from 7 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Jeju United FC
1
Draws
4
FC Seoul
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
From 10 meetings on record, Jeju United FC have won 5, FC Seoul have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Jeju United FC and FC Seoul last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Jeju United FC 2-1 FC Seoul.
Who has won more matches between Jeju United FC and FC Seoul?
Jeju United FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Jeju United FC see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
FC Seoul are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Jeju United FC 48%, FC Seoul 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Jeju United FC) and 52% (FC Seoul).
On the defensive side: Jeju United FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Jeju United FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Jeju United FC home games / FC Seoul away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Jeju United FC play FC Seoul?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Jeju United FC's games and 66% of FC Seoul's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Jeju United FC vs FC Seoul usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Jeju United FC's recent games and 52% of FC Seoul's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Jeju United FC and FC Seoul tend to score early?
Jeju United FC have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, FC Seoul in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Jeju United FC defy the odds to beat FC Seoul 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Jeju United FC beat FC Seoul 3-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.12 xG and FC Seoul 1.69 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Jeju United FC beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.10 against FC Seoul attack 1.35 / defence 0.89, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 25% | Draw 24% | FC Seoul 51%, with FC Seoul to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Jeju United FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 41%, FC Seoul 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Jeju United FC's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
FC Seoul's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.10 PPG, FC Seoul 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Jeju United FC win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm. FC Seoul (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.34 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.