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Prediction vindicated as FC Anyang edge out Jeju United FC 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC Anyang beat Jeju United FC 1-2 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the K League 1. It was 0-1 at the break, with 2 further goals after it. Scorers: Kim Dong-Jin (35') · Matheus Oliveira (46') · Kim Ryun-sung (64'). With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.87 xG and FC Anyang 1.35 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.87 / defence 1.00 against FC Anyang attack 1.09 / defence 0.95, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 23% | Draw 31% | FC Anyang 47%, with FC Anyang to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 42%, FC Anyang 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (38 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 53% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

FC Anyang's trading profile (38 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 68% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.11 PPG, FC Anyang 1.29 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC Anyang win broke the near-deadlock. FC Anyang (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.06 average — above their attacking norm.

In-Play Signals

Jeju United FC controlled the ball (58%). The model had leaned the other way, toward FC Anyang; and FC Anyang justified the model by winning without the ball. Jeju United FC shot more often (26 to 11, 7 on target). FC Anyang were the sharper finishers, converting at 18% against 4% — the kind of finishing edge that decides games the underlying numbers call close. The scoring opened before half-time (0-1 at the interval). 2 of the 3 goals arrived after the restart.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments

📊 Statistics