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Stalemate at Jeju United FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Jeju United FC and Daejeon Citizen finished level at 0-0 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. It was 0-0 at the break. That is the bare outline; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 0.91 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.65 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Jeju United FC fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Daejeon Citizen landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.02 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.26 / defence 0.94, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 19% | Draw 27% | Daejeon Citizen 54%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 39%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (54 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 54% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (54 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 57% of games, and here they did not; BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.13 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.72 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights