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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Daejeon Citizen cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Jeju United FC.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Daejeon Citizen beat Jeju United FC 1-3 at Jeju World Cup Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Jeju United FC 1.24 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.59 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Jeju United FC attack 1.19 / defence 1.12 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.32 / defence 0.91, drawn from 37/37 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Jeju United FC 30% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 45%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 45%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Jeju United FC 46%, Daejeon Citizen 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Jeju United FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Jeju United FC 1.18 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Daejeon Citizen win broke the near-deadlock. Jeju United FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.34 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights