Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen – Pre-Match Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Daejeon Citizen at 45%, yet other data sources diverge — this Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Incheon United host Daejeon Citizen at Sungui Arena Park in K League 1, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all K League 1 games this season, Incheon United have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Incheon United, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Incheon United at Sungui Arena Park this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Daejeon Citizen — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Daejeon Citizen, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Daejeon Citizen away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.10 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.30 PPG (Incheon United) versus 1.70 (Daejeon Citizen). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 4 wins apiece for Incheon United, 3 for Daejeon Citizen and 2 shared spoils from 9 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 May 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Incheon United trading profile (26 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
Daejeon Citizen trading profile (26 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Incheon United 54% versus Daejeon Citizen 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Incheon United 46% | Daejeon Citizen 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Incheon United 1.15 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.62 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Incheon United attack 0.852 / defence 0.939 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.305 / defence 1.158. League average goals — home 1.169 / away 1.319. Daejeon Citizen have an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — the away xG of 1.62 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 26 Incheon United games / 60 Daejeon Citizen games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Incheon United 24% | Draw 31% | Daejeon Citizen 45%. Fair-value odds: Incheon United 4.17 | Draw 3.23 | Daejeon Citizen 2.22. Daejeon Citizen hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Daejeon Citizen as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Daejeon Citizen offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.77 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 58% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Incheon United 40% | Daejeon Citizen 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Sungui Arena Park • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Incheon United 24% | Draw 31% | Daejeon Citizen 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 58% | xG Incheon United 1.15 / Daejeon Citizen 1.62 • Poisson strength factors: Incheon United attack 0.852 / def 0.939 | Daejeon Citizen attack 1.305 / def 1.158 | league avg home 1.169 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Daejeon Citizen (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Incheon United xG
Expected Goals
1.62
Daejeon Citizen xG
58%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen kick off?
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen is scheduled to kick off at 10:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Sungui Arena Park.
Where is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen being played?
The match is being played at Sungui Arena Park.
What competition is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen part of?
Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our statistical model gives Incheon United a 24% chance of winning, Daejeon Citizen a 45% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Daejeon Citizen the favourite.
Will both teams score in Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen will score (BTTS).
Will Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen?
Record (9 meetings): Incheon United 4W | Draws 2 | Daejeon Citizen 3W.
What form are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen in?
Incheon United (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Daejeon Citizen (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Incheon United's attack at 0.85x the league average against Daejeon Citizen's defence at 1.16x — combine the two and it projects 1.15 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Daejeon Citizen's attack versus Incheon United's defence, projects 1.62 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Daejeon Citizen Win
24%
4.18
31%
3.20
45%
2.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Incheon United xG
Total xG
2.77
1.62
Daejeon Citizen xG
4.18
24%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.23
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.72
42%
BTTS No
2.39
Clean Sheet
20%
5.03
32%
3.17
Win to Nil
5%
21.01
14%
7.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 10.1 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.2 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Incheon United and 1.62 for Daejeon Citizen, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Incheon United come into this having played 26 games, going 9W 7D 10L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Incheon United is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Daejeon Citizen sit at 1.31 PPG from 26 outings (9W 7D 10L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-W across their last five. The sample for Daejeon Citizen is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Incheon United on 1.31 PPG, Daejeon Citizen on 1.31. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Incheon United's home form reads 4W 3D 6L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.15 PPG return.
Away from home, Daejeon Citizen have taken 1.54 points per game from 13 outings (6W 2D 5L).
Goals in Recent Form
Incheon United are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Daejeon Citizen are on 1.50 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 26 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Incheon United
Blended
Daejeon Citizen
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen in coming into this match?
Incheon United have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 games (1.31 PPG), while Daejeon Citizen have gone 9W 7D 10L in their last 26 (1.31 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Incheon United at home or Daejeon Citizen away?
Daejeon Citizen's away record (1.54 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Incheon United at home: 1.15 PPG; Daejeon Citizen away: 1.54 PPG.
Have Incheon United or Daejeon Citizen been keeping clean sheets recently?
Incheon United have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Daejeon Citizen in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 5 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Incheon United's record when hosting Daejeon Citizen specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Incheon United
2
Draws
3
Daejeon Citizen
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen?
From 9 meetings on record, Incheon United have won 4, Daejeon Citizen have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen last play each other?
They last met on 5 May 2026, when Daejeon Citizen 0-0 Incheon United.
Who has won more matches between Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen?
Incheon United have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Incheon United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Daejeon Citizen are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Incheon United 54%, Daejeon Citizen 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Incheon United) and 62% (Daejeon Citizen).
On the defensive side: Daejeon Citizen in 38%; Daejeon Citizen in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Incheon United home games / Daejeon Citizen away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Incheon United play Daejeon Citizen?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Incheon United's recent matches and 46% of Daejeon Citizen's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Incheon United vs Daejeon Citizen usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Incheon United's recent games and 62% of Daejeon Citizen's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Incheon United and Daejeon Citizen tend to score early?
Incheon United have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Daejeon Citizen in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.