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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson model favours Gangwon FC (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gangwon FC face Jeju United FC.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 30 as Gangwon FC welcome Jeju United FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 08:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all K League 1 games this season, Gangwon FC have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: D W W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Gangwon FC at Chuncheon Songam Stadium this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.

Jeju United FC — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Jeju United FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in K League 1 this season, Jeju United FC have posted 5W 2D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.70 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.70 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

Gangwon FC are in the better shape of the two on current K League 1 data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

H2H

The fixture history tells a clear story: Gangwon FC have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 10 past contests while Jeju United FC have managed just 0 wins.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.

The historical record gives Gangwon FC a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 10 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Gangwon FC in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Jeju United FC in-play tendencies (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 40% versus Jeju United FC 51%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gangwon FC 36% | Jeju United FC 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.19 xG and Jeju United FC 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 1.196 / defence 0.801 | Jeju United FC attack 0.872 / defence 0.971. League average goals — home 1.021 / away 1.225. Data: 50 Gangwon FC games / 50 Jeju United FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 42% | Draw 34% | Jeju United FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 2.38 | Draw 2.94 | Jeju United FC 4.00. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.04. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.04 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Gangwon FC at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gangwon FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.04 combined xG gives a 33% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.

Poisson assigns a 42% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 50% | Jeju United FC 40% BTTS from recent games.

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