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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC and Gimcheon Sangmu FC finished level at 1-1 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.23 xG and Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.59 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.25 / defence 1.06, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 29% | Draw 26% | Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%, with Gimcheon Sangmu FC to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 45%, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.30 PPG, Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.63 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights