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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Pohang Steelers defy the odds to beat Gwangju FC 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Pohang Steelers beat Gwangju FC 2-3 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 4, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.36 xG and Pohang Steelers 1.18 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Pohang Steelers outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 1.02 / defence 0.93 against Pohang Steelers attack 1.16 / defence 1.28, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 41% | Draw 27% | Pohang Steelers 32%, with Gwangju FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Pohang Steelers win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 36%, Pohang Steelers 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Pohang Steelers's trading profile (76 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.39 PPG, Pohang Steelers 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Pohang Steelers win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Pohang Steelers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.41 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights