Gwangju FC 0-0 Gangwon FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Gangwon FC at 63% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gwangju FC host Gangwon FC at Gwangju Football Stadium in K League 1 (matchday 13). Kick-off is Saturday 9 May 2026 at 08:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Gwangju FC have gone 5W 1D 4L — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Gwangju FC at home: 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Gangwon FC — last 10 games: 3W 5D 2L — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 3W 4D 3L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Gwangju FC at 1.60 PPG versus Gangwon FC's 1.40. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
Gangwon FC have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the 8 H2H matches we hold against 2 for Gwangju FC.
The 8 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Apr 2026, ended Gwangju FC 0–3 Gangwon FC — a Gangwon FC win.
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 6 wins from 8 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
In-Play Data
Gwangju FC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 17 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Gangwon FC trading profile (last 76 games, 38 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gwangju FC 46% versus Gangwon FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gwangju FC 41% | Gangwon FC 49%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Gwangju FC surrender their half-time lead 35% of the time, while Gangwon FC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 32% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gwangju FC 0.85 xG and Gangwon FC 1.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gwangju FC attack 0.994 / defence 1.577 | Gangwon FC attack 0.963 / defence 0.813. League average goals — home 1.048 / away 1.310. Gwangju FC's defence rating of 1.577 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Gangwon FC's projected output up. Data: built from Gwangju FC's last 45 games and Gangwon FC's last 45.
Result probabilities: Gwangju FC 14% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 63%. Fair-value odds: Gwangju FC 7.15 | Draw 4.32 | Gangwon FC 1.59. The model has a clear lean to Gangwon FC (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Gangwon FC as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. The head-to-head data (Gangwon FC 6 wins from 8 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Gwangju FC 50% (last 10 home games) | Gangwon FC 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC | Competition: K League 1, matchday 13 | Venue: Gwangju Football Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 9 May 2026 at 08:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gwangju FC 14% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 63% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% (Under 46%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG Gwangju FC 0.85 / Gangwon FC 1.99 • Poisson strength factors: Gwangju FC attack 0.994 / def 1.577 | Gangwon FC attack 0.963 / def 0.813 | league avg home 1.048 / away 1.310 • Poisson stance: Gangwon FC (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.85
Gwangju FC xG
Expected Goals
1.99
Gangwon FC xG
50%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC FAQs
What time does Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC kick off?
Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC kicked off at 08:30 UK time on Saturday 9 May 2026 at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What was the final score in Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Gwangju FC 0 - 0 Gangwon FC.
Where is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC being played?
The match is being played at Gwangju Football Stadium.
What competition is Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC part of?
Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC is a K League 1 fixture (matchday 13) (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our statistical model gives Gwangju FC a 14% chance of winning, Gangwon FC a 63% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Gangwon FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Gwangju FC's attack at 0.99x the league average against Gangwon FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 0.85 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gangwon FC's attack versus Gwangju FC's defence, projects 1.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Gwangju FC's last 45 games and Gangwon FC's last 45 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-2 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 0-1 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gangwon FC Win
14%
7.15
23%
4.32
63%
1.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.6%
Away win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.85
Gwangju FC xG
Total xG
2.84
1.99
Gangwon FC xG
7.15
14%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
1.59
63%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
14%
7.32
43%
2.33
Win to Nil
2%
52.33
27%
3.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 11.7 | 11.6 | 7.7 | 3.8 | 1.5 |
| 1 | 5.0 | 9.9 | 9.8 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.1 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Our Poisson model rates 0-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC expected to score?
The model projects 0.85 expected goals for Gwangju FC and 1.99 for Gangwon FC, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Gwangju FC have picked up 1.33 PPG on a 29W 14D 33L record — W-W-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Gangwon FC's form line: 32W 20D 24L from 76 games, 1.53 PPG, last five L-D-W-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gwangju FC on 1.33 PPG, Gangwon FC on 1.53. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Gwangju FC have posted 1.45 PPG from their last 38 home games (16W 7D 15L).
On the road, Gangwon FC have gone 14W 6D 18L from their last 38 away games — 1.26 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Gwangju FC are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Gangwon FC are on 1.30 scored and 1.28 conceded.
Last 76 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
Gwangju FC (Home) vs Gangwon FC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Gwangju FC
Current Season
Gangwon FC
Current Season
❓ Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC Form FAQs
What form are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC in coming into this match?
Gwangju FC have gone 29W 14D 33L in their last 76 games (1.33 PPG), while Gangwon FC have gone 32W 20D 24L in their last 76 (1.53 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gwangju FC at home or Gangwon FC away?
Gwangju FC's home record (1.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gwangju FC at home: 1.45 PPG; Gangwon FC away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Gwangju FC or Gangwon FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gwangju FC have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Gangwon FC in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from October 2023. All of them came in K League 1. The most recent was as recently as 26 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The most recent 2 H2H matches in our data have all been drawn — an unusually settled run for this fixture.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 4 Apr 2026, when Gangwon FC won Gangwon FC 3-0 Gwangju FC.
Gwangju FC's record when hosting Gangwon FC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gwangju FC
2
Draws
6
Gangwon FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Gwangju FC have won 2, Gangwon FC have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 26 August 2026: Gangwon FC 2-2 Gwangju FC.
Who has won more matches between Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC?
Gangwon FC have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gwangju FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 46% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gwangju FC 53%, Gangwon FC 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Gwangju FC) and 47% (Gangwon FC).
On the defensive side: Gwangju FC have failed to score in 26% of games; Gangwon FC in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gwangju FC home games / Gangwon FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Gwangju FC vs Gangwon FC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 50% of Gangwon FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Gwangju FC's recent games and 47% of Gangwon FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of Gwangju FC's recent matches and 63% of Gangwon FC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gwangju FC's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gwangju FC and Gangwon FC finished level at 0-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 0.85 xG and Gangwon FC 1.99 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gwangju FC fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Gangwon FC landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.58 against Gangwon FC attack 0.96 / defence 0.81, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 14% | Draw 23% | Gangwon FC 63%, with Gangwon FC to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 41%, Gangwon FC 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gwangju FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.33 PPG, Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.18 average — tighter than their form line. Gangwon FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.