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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gwangju FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Daejeon Citizen.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gwangju FC beat Daejeon Citizen 2-0 at Gwangju Football Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the K League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gwangju FC 1.28 xG and Daejeon Citizen 1.56 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Daejeon Citizen landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gwangju FC attack 0.91 / defence 1.03 against Daejeon Citizen attack 1.22 / defence 1.06, drawn from 58/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gwangju FC 31% | Draw 25% | Daejeon Citizen 44%, with Daejeon Citizen to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Gwangju FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gwangju FC 44%, Daejeon Citizen 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gwangju FC's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.

Daejeon Citizen's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gwangju FC 1.25 PPG, Daejeon Citizen 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gwangju FC win broke the near-deadlock. Gwangju FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line. Daejeon Citizen (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights