Gimcheon Sangmu FC 0-0 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 47%, yet in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Gimcheon Sangmu FC host Ulsan Hyundai FC at Gimcheon Stadium in K League 1 (Championship Round - 1). Kick-off is Saturday 19 October 2024 at 09:30 UK time.

Form Analysis

Looking at their last 10 matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC stand at 4W 1D 5L — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W W W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%).

In front of their own supporters, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 6W 2D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.00 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Gimcheon Sangmu FC are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Across their last 10 games, Ulsan Hyundai FC have recorded 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Ulsan Hyundai FC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.90 vs 1.30). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 0, Ulsan Hyundai FC 2, with 1 draw — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 6 Oct 2024, ended Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1–2 Ulsan Hyundai FC — a Ulsan Hyundai FC win.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

In-Play Profile

Gimcheon Sangmu FC in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 50% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play tendencies (last 33 games, 16 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 38% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 46% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 48% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.32 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.121 / defence 0.871 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.812 / defence 0.808. League average goals — home 1.459 / away 1.234. Data: built from Gimcheon Sangmu FC's last 33 games and Ulsan Hyundai FC's last 66.

Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 47% | Draw 28% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 25%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2.12 | Draw 3.55 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 4.05. Gimcheon Sangmu FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 43% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 57% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Gimcheon Sangmu FC are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Ulsan Hyundai FC (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Gimcheon Sangmu FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 62% — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.0 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 40% (last 10 home games) | Ulsan Hyundai FC 40% (last 10 away games).

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