Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Gimcheon Sangmu FC take on FC Anyang.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
FC Anyang make the trip to Gimcheon Stadium to face Gimcheon Sangmu FC in K League 1, Regular Season - 31. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 October 2026 at 07:30 UTC.
Form
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all games): 2W 6D 2L across 10 K League 1 fixtures this term — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Gimcheon Sangmu FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's form when playing at home: 1W 6D 3L across 10 games at Gimcheon Stadium this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
FC Anyang's overall K League 1 record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: L L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Anyang, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in K League 1 this season, FC Anyang have posted 5W 3D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Gimcheon Sangmu FC have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, FC Anyang in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Gimcheon Sangmu FC lead 2W to 1W over the last 5 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 5 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 13 May 2026, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Gimcheon Sangmu FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games).
FC Anyang goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 57% and FC Anyang 65% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 45% | FC Anyang 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.19 xG and FC Anyang 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.912 / defence 0.952 | FC Anyang attack 0.935 / defence 1.122. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.350. Data: 60 Gimcheon Sangmu FC games / 60 FC Anyang games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 33%. Fair-value odds: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3.12 | Draw 2.86 | FC Anyang 3.03. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.39. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.39 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 32% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.39 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 60% | FC Anyang 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Gimcheon Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 07:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 32% | Draw 35% | FC Anyang 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 52% | xG Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.19 / FC Anyang 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.912 / def 0.952 | FC Anyang attack 0.935 / def 1.122 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.350 • Poisson stance: Draw (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Expected Goals
1.20
FC Anyang xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang kick off?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang is scheduled to kick off at 07:30 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at Gimcheon Stadium.
Where is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang being played?
The match is being played at Gimcheon Stadium.
What competition is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang part of?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our statistical model gives Gimcheon Sangmu FC a 32% chance of winning, FC Anyang a 33% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang will score (BTTS).
Will Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
Record (5 meetings): Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2W | Draws 2 | FC Anyang 1W.
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang in?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. FC Anyang (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against FC Anyang's defensive record (1.12x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. Flip it around — FC Anyang's attack (0.94x) against Gimcheon Sangmu FC's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.20.
These ratings are built from 60/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.8%), 0-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
32%
3.11
35%
2.83
33%
3.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.0%
Away win
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Gimcheon Sangmu FC xG
Total xG
2.39
1.20
FC Anyang xG
3.11
32%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
3.07
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
10%
10.34
10%
10.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.1 | 7.9 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Gimcheon Sangmu FC and 1.20 for FC Anyang, a combined total of 2.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 65 outings, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have picked up 1.37 PPG on a 22W 23D 20L record — D-D-D-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for Gimcheon Sangmu FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Anyang's form line: 22W 17D 26L from 65 games, 1.28 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-L. The sample for FC Anyang is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Gimcheon Sangmu FC against 1.28 for FC Anyang. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have posted 1.38 PPG from 32 outings (11W 11D 10L).
On the road, FC Anyang have gone 11W 8D 13L from 32 away games — 1.28 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Gimcheon Sangmu FC are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; FC Anyang are on 1.26 scored and 1.37 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: FC Anyang in 65%.
Last 65 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Blended
FC Anyang
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang in coming into this match?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 22W 23D 20L in their last 65 games (1.37 PPG), while FC Anyang have gone 22W 17D 26L in their last 65 (1.28 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home or FC Anyang away?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home: 1.38 PPG; FC Anyang away: 1.28 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC Anyang won 4-1 on 18 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against FC Anyang — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
2
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
2
Draws
1
FC Anyang
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
From 5 meetings on record, Gimcheon Sangmu FC have won 2, FC Anyang have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when FC Anyang 2-2 Gimcheon Sangmu FC.
Who has won more matches between Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Gimcheon Sangmu FC see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time.
FC Anyang are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 50%, FC Anyang 66% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Gimcheon Sangmu FC) and 50% (FC Anyang).
On the defensive side: Gimcheon Sangmu FC have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gimcheon Sangmu FC home games / FC Anyang away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gimcheon Sangmu FC play FC Anyang?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's games and 66% of FC Anyang's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs FC Anyang usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC's recent games and 50% of FC Anyang's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gimcheon Sangmu FC and FC Anyang tend to score early?
Gimcheon Sangmu FC have had a goal before half-time in 53% of their recent matches, FC Anyang in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.