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Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gimcheon Sangmu FC and Bucheon FC 1995 finished level at 1-1 at Gimcheon Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the K League 1. It was 1-1 at the break, the second half adding nothing to the tally. Scorers: Go Jae-Hyeon (29') · Baek Dong-Gyu (32'). The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.10 xG and Bucheon FC 1995 1.17 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.20 against Bucheon FC 1995 attack 0.79 / defence 1.14, drawn from 49/16 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gimcheon Sangmu FC 33% | Draw 30% | Bucheon FC 1995 36%, with Bucheon FC 1995 to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gimcheon Sangmu FC 44%, Bucheon FC 1995 33%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gimcheon Sangmu FC's trading profile (18 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 67% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Bucheon FC 1995's trading profile (18 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: they score before half-time in 44% of games, and here they did; BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1.00 PPG, Bucheon FC 1995 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights

⚡ Key Moments