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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 2-2 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.06 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights