Gangwon FC 2-2 Ulsan Hyundai FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 24 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Sunday 27 July 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gangwon FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ulsan Hyundai FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Gangwon FC 1.20 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 May 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 48% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 24% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 52% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 55% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 1.06 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.890 / defence 1.119 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.795 / defence 0.897. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 1.269. Data: 56 Gangwon FC games / 55 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 3.03 | Draw 3.23 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.19 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 30% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC | Competition: K League 1, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Chuncheon Songam Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Jul 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 45% | xG Gangwon FC 1.06 / Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Gangwon FC attack 0.890 / def 1.119 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.795 / def 0.897 | league avg home 1.329 / away 1.269 • Poisson stance: Ulsan Hyundai FC (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Gangwon FC xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
45%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kick off?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 27 July 2025 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What was the final score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Gangwon FC 2 - 2 Ulsan Hyundai FC.
Where is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC being played?
The match is being played at Chuncheon Songam Stadium.
What competition is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC part of?
Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the K League 1 (South-Korea).
Who is favourite to win Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our statistical model gives Gangwon FC a 33% chance of winning, Ulsan Hyundai FC a 36% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Ulsan Hyundai FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC will score (BTTS).
Will Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Record (6 meetings): Gangwon FC 2W | Draws 1 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 3W.
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in?
Gangwon FC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. Ulsan Hyundai FC (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Gangwon FC's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Ulsan Hyundai FC's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Ulsan Hyundai FC's attack versus Gangwon FC's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.9%), 0-1 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Ulsan Hyundai FC Win
33%
3.04
31%
3.25
36%
2.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.6%
Away win
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Gangwon FC xG
Total xG
2.19
1.13
Ulsan Hyundai FC xG
3.04
33%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
2.76
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.22
55%
BTTS No
1.82
Clean Sheet
32%
3.09
35%
2.89
Win to Nil
11%
9.40
13%
7.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 12.6 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Gangwon FC and 1.13 for Ulsan Hyundai FC, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 60 outings, Gangwon FC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 27W 11D 22L record — D-W-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Gangwon FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's form line: 29W 15D 16L from 60 games, 1.70 PPG, last five D-L-D-L-L. The sample for Ulsan Hyundai FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Gangwon FC on 1.53 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC on 1.70. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Gangwon FC have posted 1.83 PPG from 29 outings (15W 8D 6L).
On the road, Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 10W 9D 10L from 29 away games — 1.34 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gangwon FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Gangwon FC are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Ulsan Hyundai FC are on 1.47 scored and 1.07 conceded.
Defensively: Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 60 Results — K League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gangwon FC
Blended
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC in coming into this match?
Gangwon FC have gone 27W 11D 22L in their last 60 games (1.53 PPG), while Ulsan Hyundai FC have gone 29W 15D 16L in their last 60 (1.70 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gangwon FC at home or Ulsan Hyundai FC away?
Gangwon FC's home record (1.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gangwon FC at home: 1.83 PPG; Ulsan Hyundai FC away: 1.34 PPG.
Have Gangwon FC or Ulsan Hyundai FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gangwon FC have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in K League 1. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Gangwon FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Apr 2024, when Ulsan Hyundai FC won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gangwon FC's record when hosting Ulsan Hyundai FC specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Gangwon FC
2
Draws
4
Ulsan Hyundai FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC?
From 10 meetings on record, Gangwon FC have won 4, Ulsan Hyundai FC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Ulsan Hyundai FC 2-3 Gangwon FC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Gangwon FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Ulsan Hyundai FC see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gangwon FC 52%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Gangwon FC) and 24% (Ulsan Hyundai FC).
On the defensive side: Gangwon FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%; Ulsan Hyundai FC in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gangwon FC home games / Ulsan Hyundai FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gangwon FC play Ulsan Hyundai FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Gangwon FC's recent matches and 45% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Gangwon FC's recent games and 24% of Ulsan Hyundai FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC tend to score early?
Gangwon FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Ulsan Hyundai FC in 48% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 2-2 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the K League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 1.06 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.13 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Gangwon FC beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Ulsan Hyundai FC outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.80 / defence 0.90, drawn from 56/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 33% | Draw 31% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 36%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 55%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gangwon FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gangwon FC 1.53 PPG, Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.70 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Ulsan Hyundai FC (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.93 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.