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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Gangwon FC and Ulsan Hyundai FC finished level at 1-1 at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Regular Season - 14, in the K League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Gangwon FC 0.68 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gangwon FC attack 0.71 / defence 1.10 against Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.80, drawn from 46/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Gangwon FC 22% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%, with Ulsan Hyundai FC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gangwon FC 41%, Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Gangwon FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Ulsan Hyundai FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights