🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson rates Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gangwon FC vs Ulsan Hyundai FC encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a K League 1 clash, Regular Season - 14 as Gangwon FC welcome Ulsan Hyundai FC to Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 May 2025 at 11:00 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Gangwon FC stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 K League 1 matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

At home at Chuncheon Songam Stadium, Gangwon FC have gone 7W 2D 1L this season (10 games, 2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Chuncheon Songam Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Gangwon FC are significantly better at Chuncheon Songam Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Ulsan Hyundai FC — All Games: 7W 3D 0L from 10 K League 1 fixtures this season — 2.40 PPG. Last five: D W W D W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 0.90. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.

Ulsan Hyundai FC's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in K League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Ulsan Hyundai FC are 1.00 PPG ahead (2.40 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Gangwon FC, 3 for Ulsan Hyundai FC and 0 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Apr 2025, ended 2–1 with Gangwon FC winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Patterns

Gangwon FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 66% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).

Ulsan Hyundai FC in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gangwon FC 57% versus Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gangwon FC 41% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 53%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Gangwon FC 0.68 xG and Ulsan Hyundai FC 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gangwon FC attack 0.710 / defence 1.104 | Ulsan Hyundai FC attack 0.945 / defence 0.797. League average goals — home 1.195 / away 1.057. Gangwon FC's attack strength of 0.710 is below the league average — the 0.68 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Ulsan Hyundai FC's defence strength of 0.797 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Gangwon FC games / 48 Ulsan Hyundai FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Gangwon FC 22% | Draw 32% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 46%. Fair-value odds: Gangwon FC 4.55 | Draw 3.12 | Ulsan Hyundai FC 2.17. Ulsan Hyundai FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Gangwon FC's lower xG of 0.68 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Ulsan Hyundai FC at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Ulsan Hyundai FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 1.78 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 26% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 33% on No. Form rates corroborate: Gangwon FC 50% | Ulsan Hyundai FC 30% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights